Climate change could kill more than 500,000 adults in 2050 worldwide, with almost three-quarters of those expected in India (136,000) and China (248,000) due to changes in diets and body weight from reduced crop productivity.
According to new estimates published in the Lancet, the countries that are likely to be worst affected are low and middle-income countries, predominantly those in the Western Pacific region (264,000 deaths) and Southeast Asia (164,000). On a per-capita basis, Greece (124 deaths per million people) and Italy (89 deaths per million people) are also likely to be significantly affected.
“The research is the strongest evidence yet that climate change could have damaging consequences for food production and health worldwide,” said the Lancet.
The study reveals that unless action is taken to reduce global emissions, climate change could cut the projected improvement in food availability by about a third by 2050 and lead to average per-person reductions in food availability of 3.2% (99 kcal per day), in fruit and vegetable intake of 4% (14.9g per day) and red meat consumption of 0.7% (0.5g per day).
The findings predict that these changes could be responsible for around 529,000 extra deaths in 2050, compared to a future without climate change in which increases in food availability and consumption could have prevented 1.9 million deaths.
The biggest impacts of changes in fruit and vegetable intake are likely to be felt across high-income countries (accounting for 58% of all changes in deaths), in low- and middle-income countries of the Western Pacific (74%), Europe (60%) and the Eastern Mediterranean (42%).
Southeast Asia and Africa top the list for underweight-related deaths in adults, accounting for 47% and 49% of all changes in deaths in 2050 respectively.
The modelling study, led by Dr Marco Springmann from the Oxford Martin programme on the future of food at the University of Oxford, UK, is the first of its kind to assess the impact of climate change on diet composition and body weight, and to estimate the number of deaths they will cause in 155 countries in 2050.
Climate change will have some positive effects with many climate-related deaths being offset by reductions in obesity.
However, the saving of around 260000 fewer deaths from obesity worldwide in 2050 is balanced by lower calorie availability and an increase in the number of deaths cause by people being underweight (266000 extra deaths). Importantly, say the authors, cutting emissions could have substantial health benefits, reducing the number of climate-related deaths by 29–71% depending on the strength of the interventions.
