Indian monsoon seen slowing after strong start, says forecaster

Singapore: India’s monsoons, which hit the southern coast late last month, are expected to make slow progress over the next two weeks and delay the onset of crucial rains over north-western parts of the country, a private US-based weather forecaster said.

Monsoon rains, vital for Asia’s third largest economy, hit Kerala at the end of May, a few days earlier than normal, brightening the outlook for agricultural and economic output.

“Indian monsoon got off to a pretty good start across much of southern India. But, we see a change in the situation, we are going to see mostly dry weather over the next 10 days,” said Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist at Radiant Solutions, formerly MDA Earthsat.

“North-western areas have yet to see the monsoon and it looks like it’s going to be dry over the next couple of weeks. Northern and western India is going to see monsoon behind schedule.”

The Monsoon delivers about 70 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and are the lifeblood of its USD 2.5 trillion economy, spurring farm output and boosting spending on items ranging from gold to tractors and refrigerators.

Tapley said rains are forecast to return after a 10 day dry spell.

“All of India looks below normal over the next 10 days, once you get past that period, it looks like rains begin to return to southern and central India.”

For the entire four-month monsoon season, rains are expected to be marginally below normal, he said by phone from the company’s headquarters in Washington. India Meteorological Department (IMD) retained its monsoon forecast at 97 per cent of a long-term average on Wednesday.