Market volatilty seen increasing

The market ended lower on Monday after a volatile session as investors turned cautious ahead of the start of corporate earnings season and polling for the general elections.

The Sensex closed 161.70 points lower at 38,700, while the shed 61 points to settle at 11,604. Selling was seen financial, metal and energy stocks.

The sentiments were also hit by rise in global crude pricing dragging the oil stocks down.

The top Sensex losers were Yes Bank, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, Tata Motors, Reliance Industries and SBI, while Infosys, Mahindra and Mahindra, ONGC, TCS, PowerGrid and NTPC were the major gainers.

The market breadth was tilted in favour of sellers as 1,534 shares fell and 987 advanced on the BSE.

Market view
"Investors have turned cautious given rise in oil prices and sharp rally in the last couple of months leading to premium valuation of key indices. Additionally, general elections and start of Q4 earnings season is adding to the cautiousness, we may see some profit booking in the near-term given sharp run-up in markets," Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said.

According to analysts, India VIX, which is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices, shot up by more than 9 per cent on Monday's trading session.

"Considering the Lok Sabha elections in the near term, traders seem to be anticipating a rise in volatility which led the volatility Index close above 20 for the first time in this calendar year. The Nifty Index witnessed some profit booking and ended the day with a loss of more than half a percent. However, looking at the historical data, we are still optimistic on our market and advise traders not to panic till VIX is trading below its resistance around 22," said Ruchit Jain Equity Technical Analyst, Angel Broking.

Analysts expect 11549 would now be seen as a crucial support for the coming session.

Technical View
"A sustainable move below this would result into an extended correction towards 11500 - 11465. On the flipside, the immediate resistance is now placed in the zone of 11650 - 11710 levels, Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives Angel Broking.

"At this juncture, the ideal strategy would be not to trade aggressively and one needs to be extremely stock specific when it comes to a momentum trade," he further said.

Though our bullish view is intact on the Nifty but it could test 11,450 before fresh up move. "It's an eventful week so participants should focus more on risk management aspects as volatility will remain high on stock specific front. Private banks, financials and IT look strong while others may continue to trade mix," said Jayant Manglik, President - Retail Distribution, Religare Broking Ltd.