Cold War rivalry renewed

The ghosts of the past never really leave us. The contest between modern Russia and Turkey goes back to the fog of early times. After the retreat of the Mongols, both Russia and Turkey began to emerge as powerful states jostling for primacy while being driven by their faiths. As the two neighbours began expanding outwards they began a series of clashes over the Black Sea basin. Russia was on the ascendant after it defeated Sweden at Poltava in 1709. Russia won the Crimea and southern Ukraine from Turkey in 1783. Not surprisingly the decline of Turkey coincided with the rise of Russia.

The two empires fought each other for the last time during the First World War. However, by the end of the war both monarchies had been either overthrown or defeated. While Turkey officially remained neutral during the Second World War, the USSR viewed Turkey’s continued relationship with Nazi Germany, whose warships were allowed passage through the Straits of Bosporus, as inimical to it.

But no sooner that war ended the Cold War began and Turkey joined North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and America-sponsored the Central Treaty Organisation. The Russian-Turkish friction began again as the United States stationed forces in Turkey and built a huge airbase at Incirlik. One of the lesser-known transactions leading to the lifting of the US naval blockade of Cuba and withdrawal of nuclear capable Soviet R-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBMs) from Cuba in 1962 was the US withdrawal of its Jupiter missiles from Turkey.

The collapse of the Ottoman Empire left behind a mosaic of tribes and nationalities under the control of France and Britain. The British diplomat, Gertrude Bell, drew the lines that are now the borders of Iraq, Syria and Turkey. Among the nationalities left stranded, much like the Kurds, in several countries are the Turkmen.

The Turkmen are ethnic Turks who have lived in the region of Syria and Iraq since the 11th century. The Turkish Encyclopedia claims there are 523 Turkmen villages in Syria. The main areas of Turkmen concentration are the regions straddling the Turkish border, particularly in the Aleppo and Latakia Governorates. There are no reliable population figures, but they are estimated to number between 1.5 and 3.5 million. Very large numbers of these Bayirbucak Turkmen have spilled over into Turkey as refugees.

The Russian Su-24 Fencer shot down was attacking the Syrian Turkmen brigades. Turkmen fighters in Iraq and Syria are armed and trained by Turkey’s Special Forces Command.

The composite of the flight path maps released by both parties give us a pretty good idea about what might have transpired. If we accept the Turkish claim of airspace violation, the two Russian fighters were overflying a sliver of Turkish territory, about 1.7 miles across and which would take the Su-24 about 20 seconds to cross. The Turkish claim that their fighters warned the Russian fighters for over 10 minutes while the surviving Russian pilot denies there was any warning over radio or by flying along side. Whatever the veracity of the supposed warnings, it is quite apparent that the pair of Turkish F-16s was obviously waiting in ambush and fired missiles at the two Fencers as they flew across, hitting one. One thing is also clear; the Russian jet was hit over Syrian airspace, as both its crew parachuted into Syrian rebel territory, with one killed by Turkmen fighters as he was descending by parachute or after he was captured.

One can expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to hit back at Turkey at a time and place of Russia’s choosing. It would be very unlike him to let it pass. We must also not expect any let up in Russian efforts on Turkmen positions around Latakia, which is Russia’s main airbase in the region.

One can only expect more attacks on Turkmen positions with Su-24 Fencers or Su-34 Fullbacks attacking and with Su-30 Flankers flying escort with the ability to fire at Turkish aircraft, which threaten Russian fighters.

The latest Sukhois have radar capable of detecting a three square meter aerial target at a distance of 400 km, and can track 30 airborne targets and engage eight of them at the same time. They carry a family of Vympel air-to-air missiles that can engage targets up to 160 kms away. Additionally, Russia has announced the deployment of a battalion of its most advanced S-400 ground to air missiles. The S-400 system uses three different missiles to cover its entire performance envelope capable of engaging airborne targets up to a range of 400 kms. A regular S-400 battalion consists of at least eight launchers with 32 missiles and a mobile command post based at Latakia or on a Russian ship nearby, this would imply a range well into Turkish airspace.

Just like the region’s convoluted past, the military alliances that are shaping up are also just as convoluted. Turkey’s Nato ally, France, is already coordinating air missions on the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria targets with Russian forces. The Americans are supporting Kurdish Peshmerga fighters battling the ISIS in a wide swathe of territory from Mosul in Iraq to Kobani in Syria. The American aircraft supporting the Kurds are based in Turkey’s Incirlik airbase.

But Turkey has been attacking the Kurds, as it does not want a free Kurdish homeland in northern Iraq, which the US favours. Iran also does not favour this. The Russians have always supported a Kurdistan in the region.

All through the Cold War, Russia played host to the legendary Mullah Mustafa Barzani, who was fighting against America’s then Cento allies, Iran, Iraq and Turkey for an independent Kurdish homeland. That fight still continues, but now it is the Americans who have insinuated themselves with the Kurds, and are supporting them in their war with ISIS.

The Kurds are also a people with a great history. The great Saladin who led the Muslim war against the European Crusaders in the Levant was a Kurd. At the height of his power, his sultanate included Egypt, Syria, Palestine, Mesopotamia, Hejaz, Yemen and parts of Northern Africa. Incidentally Saladin was born in Tikrit in Iraq, which is also Saddam Hussein’s hometown.

The Turkey-Russian fracas goes against the run of recent developments between the two countries. The Turks and Russians have been quietly mending their fences. In 2009, Turkish Prime Minister Recip Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin met at Sochi and laid the basis for future economic and political co-operation. In 2010, they lifted visa requirements for their nationals and bilateral trade boomed since.

In late 2014, the leaders of Russia and Turkey signed a series of major trade and energy deals. Russia notably agreed to reduce the gas price six per cent to Turkey and to supply it with an additional three billion cubic meters. Russia is also set to build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. Turkish construction firms are active in Russia while four million Russian tourists travel to Turkey each year. Turkey and Russia have also set an aim of increasing their two-way trade volume from $38bn to $100bn by 2020.

But on Wednesday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said: “It will be difficult to compensate for the damage done. Its direct consequence may be the rejection of a number of important joint projects and Turkish companies’ loss of their positions on the Russian market.”

Mr Putin said it was a “stab in the back that will have serious consequences for Russia’s relationship with Turkey.” Rather ominously he added: “After what happened yesterday, we cannot exclude some kind of other incidents.”

The writer, a policy analyst studying economic and security issues, held senior positions in government and industry. He also specialises in the Chinese economy.