Growing reach of the sea dragon

India’s latest defence budget is about 1.72 per cent of its gross domestic product (the lowest in GDP terms since the disastrous 1962 Sino-Indian war), and it’s about 25 per cent of the Chinese defence budget. By 2035, the Chinese economy will be the world’s largest. Its defence budget is expected to be $450 billion, it will need to increase its annual energy production — double that of the US — as 31 per cent of the global energy consumption would be by the Chinese. The disputed South China Sea (SCS) has proven oil reserves of 7.7 billion barrels and the proven plus potential gas reserves are 190 trillion cubic feet. Presently $5 trillion worth of ship-borne trade passes through the SCS annually. China, which has claimed 80 per cent of the SCS, has been taking frantic innovative steps to convert this international shipping area into its own territorial waters. There are, of course, other claimants, but they are comparatively small, weaker nations like Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia, the Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia.

Last month, the Chinese fishing fleet and Coast Guard were in the news. A Chinese fishing trawler was sunk by Argentina’s Coast Guard while trying to flee from distant Argentinian territorial waters — this incident highlights the growing global reach of Chinese sea power, and it’s only a matter of time before we have incidents in the Indian Ocean Region and possibly in our 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone (EEZ). It is well known that fishing trawlers equipped with electronic sensors are used for electronic snooping-cum-intelligence-gathering at sea. Closer to the SCS, the Vietnamese arrested a Chinese fishing trawler for entering its territorial waters, while Malaysia and Indonesia faced similar intrusions — in the case of Indonesia, the arrested Chinese fishing trawler was forcibly “rescued” inside Indonesian territorial waters by a much larger Chinese Coast Guard ship.

Since 2014, the Chinese have been extremely busy in the SCS, converting some existing islands into “unsinkable aircraft carriers” — heavily fortified islands which operate warplanes. The Chinese-controlled and disputed Woody Island, called Yongxing Island by the Chinese since taking control in 1956, in the Paracel Islands which is equidistant from Vietnam and mainland China at about 250 nm, while in the disputed Spratly Islands (810 nm from mainland China) using innovative “sand filling” to convert seven rocks, submerged reefs, into “artificial islands” which are now being upgraded to host aircraft, radars, weapons, etc.

The small but 100 per cent Chinese population in some of the Chinese-controlled, but disputed Paracel and Spratly Islands are supported by ships providing food, water and medicines, while state-controlled fishing trawlers are being “encouraged” to use these as bases for carrying out not just fishing but intelligence-gathering missions.

The 2,700-metre airstrip on Woody Island is under the control of the Chinese Air Force, which operates surveillance aircraft, helicopters and warplanes. Civil aircraft are expected to commence operations by the end of 2016 to support the Chinese population of 1,443 “living” on this island of 2.13 sq km. Recent reports indicate that Chinese have moved in radars and YJ-62 long range anti-ship cruise missiles (400 km range) on the island. For air defence, the Chinese have introduced the HQ-9 long-range surface-to-air missile (LRSAM) having a 200-km range against intruding aircraft. The Chinese radar, which provides inputs to the HQ-9 LRSAM, is the very sophisticated HT-233, which is capable of detecting American stealth fighter jets. In case any aircraft or cruise missiles penetrate the LRSAM defences, the Chinese have a layered system which includes the 20 km range SAM called HQ-6 and the four km range 30 mm seven barrelled rapid fire gun called LD-2000 which fires 5,000 shells (1/2 kg each) per minute. More importantly, the radars and surveillance aircraft on Woody Island provide targeting data to Chinese mainland to launch its latest game changer — the mainland China based, 1,500 km range DF-21D ballistic missile which has been dubbed the “aircraft carrier killer”. The Chinese are busy replicating the Woody Island “unsinkable aircraft carrier” model on the seven Chinese-controlled artificial islands in the Spratly Islands, and have recently constructed lighthouses on three of them to assert their territorial claims.

India has been training Navy and Coast Guard personnel of Vietnam and numerous Indian Ocean nations, while providing patrol boats and aircraft to some of them. Recently, the US, Japan and Australia too have begun to provide similar assistance to nations like Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, etc. The Philippines has even taken its dispute with China for international arbitration. But China will not be deterred by these small nations or any adverse international arbitration.

India, which has a long history of being taken by surprise by both China and Pakistan, and its “fastest growing large economy in the world” relies on seaborne trade for 90 per cent of its exports/imports (50 per cent of which passes through the SCS), and whose sea-imported energy needs by 2035 will be second only to that of China, has a vital stake in keeping the sea lanes open. India urgently needs to build up its Navy to operate in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region. It also needs to build up its Coast Guard. It’s also high time that we emulate the Chinese and invest in converting a few of our 1,197 islands off both coasts into “unsinkable aircraft carriers”.

We need real time intelligence and maritime domain awareness, along with a long range blue-water navy, including nuclear submarines (SSNs) which can operate in the western Pacific and Indian Oceans to deter the sea dragon from any misadventures against our national interests. And we need home-built Indian sea power, which means doubling the Navy and Coast Guard budgets. There will be no economic growth if our sea-based trade is impeded by China or its proxies.

The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam