A paradigm shift in Kerala’s politics

With three days to go before the voting, angels fear to tread the hazardous path of analysis and prediction about the election scene in Kerala. The only thing on which everyone agrees is that politics in the state has changed beyond recognition. The cosy comfort enjoyed by the United Democratic Front (UDF) and Left Democratic Front (LDF), of coming to power every five years seems to be fading. Though the third coalition of motley parties in the name of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has no hope of sharing power, except in case of a hung Assembly, the NDA’s advent as a serious competitor is a phenomenon that cannot be ignored. If nothing else, the NDA, now in power at the Centre and which includes a new Kerala party representing an influential community, has led to a re-examination of options for the electorate. National issues have come to the fore and the attention given by national leaders has brought New Delhi closer to the scene.

The slogans devised by public relations firms for the three fronts have their own significance. “Continue government, ensure progress”, declares UDF. The LDF confidently asserts: “LDF will come back and set everything right”. The NDA says: “Kerala is stuck, only the NDA can show the way”. Even the manifestos don’t say much more.

The path the UDF advocates means more of the same will be in store. The LDF doesn’t have an alternative path to suggest, except on the liquor issue, but promises it will eliminate corruption, punish the guilty and provide a clean administration. The NDA steers clear of the Hindutva agenda and puts forward a moderate programme of development. All parties promise development, but there is no consensus on what development means.

The LDF, that would have expected to ride a wave for change in the normal way, cannot offer to reverse policies as the development models held up by the UDF have captured the people’s imagination. The other handicap is the impression that the LDF is not averse to violence to achieve its objectives, even in education. Since its leaders also face corruption charges, the clean image its leaders are trying to project is not very convincing.

Reports that it is being reduced to third position in some constituencies must be a shock to the LDF. The alliance with the Congress in West Bengal is an embarrassment to the Left, even though it is recognised that politics creates strange bedfellows. Prime Minister Narendra Modi dwelt at length on this situation in his campaign speeches, referring to it as the “politics of adjustment”.

The UDF’s platform is rooted in megaprojects they have initiated or advanced in the last five years. The Vizhinjam Port, Kochi Metro, the Smart City and Kannur Airport are dream projects, that have come to fruition in the past five years. The UDF claims it is necessary for it to continue to complete these projects with the same efficiency it has shown in the past. Against its spectacular achievements, the cloud of corruption charges hangs over its leaders, though nothing has been proved.

During the campaign, corruption charges haven’t gained traction essentially as many accusers have lost credibility and the megaprojects seem to outshine mega-scandals. Barring any developments that might take place in the next few days, like the Jisha murder, the UDF appears to be at an advantage. Recent history has instances of a sense of destiny having allowed leaders to continue in some nations, even in the face of allegations. Such an approach cannot be ruled out here.

The BJP blitzkrieg is gaining unprecedented proportions in Kerala, but the names of most of its leaders don’t really resonate with Kerala voters. They aren’t even household names and their Hindi speeches seem alien to most voters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi can draw crowds, but this won’t necessarily fetch votes for BJP candidates. Mr Modi’s visit at the time of a pyrotechnics accident and his criticism of the state government over a murder case only raised eyebrows, as he was silent about serious situations elsewhere in the country.

In a recent speech by the PM on the lack of development in Kerala, particularly in tribal areas, he said the mortality rate of Kerala’s children was worse than that in Somalia. He also referred to an instance of tribal children having been photographed eating from a refuse dump. Besides the inaccuracy of this statement, the signal sent out by Kerala being compared to a failed African state set it on fire. Mr Modi referred to Somalia figuratively, as he couldn’t think of any other state of such depravity and disorder.

For that reason, both the UDF and LDF united to demand an apology over the insult to the state. Chief minister Oommen Chandy wrote to Mr Modi, seeking an apology and threatening legal action. The explanation offered by the health minister that the reference was only to tribal children didn’t help much as Unicef data was produced to show that the mortality rate for tribal children in Kerala was 60 to 1,000 while it was 137 to 1,000 in Somalia.

Against this background, Mr Modi’s last campaign visit became a disaster for the NDA, particularly as he didn’t even offer an explanation, leave alone an apology. Somalia has become a liability for the NDA on the eve of Monday’s election.

The BJP may get a few seats, which will be decisive in government formation if there is a hung Assembly. But even in that situation, finding a coalition for the BJP to support will still be a problem.

The churning of the oceans taking place in Kerala now may bring forward many apparitions, that will alter the calculations of the past. But where the poison will settle and where the nectar will emerge is still unclear.

Whatever may be the final result, the paradigm shift that has taken place in Kerala will remain.

The writer, a former diplomat who also served in the IAEA, is director-general of Kerala International Centre