Planet Paris

On the evening of Friday the 13th, Paris experienced its most chilling moments since the climax of World War II. At the cusp of losing the war to the Allies, Adolf Hitler ordered the destruction and incineration of Paris, as part of a scorched earth policy that would have ravaged one of the havens of European civilisation. It took destiny, the advance of American and French Resistance troops and, most of all, the second thoughts of a German general whose conscience and sense of judgement kept him from obeying Hitler’s crazy command to burn Paris. The drama of the hour was captured grippingly in the Larry Collins and Dominique Lapierre book Is Paris Burning

Postwar Europe, especially Western Europe, has experienced the longest peace in the continent’s history. Every preceding century, as well as the first 50 years of the 20th century, saw conflict, turbulence and assassination. Paris itself was no stranger to this — with the Revolution of 1789, the street battles and massacres as the Paris Commune was crushed in the summer of 1871, the bombings during World War I, and finally the German occupation during World War II being landmark events.

For 70 years after that, France — and Paris — has known a remarkable calm. Yes, there was the student unrest of 1968 but it was more a college festival than the revolution its ardent proponents described it as. In Europe, France made friends with historic adversaries such as Britain and later Germany and was at the forefront of European unification. Living within the American security system during the Cold War, it managed to carve for itself an identity that was allied to the United States and yet independent.

Indeed, it has been France more than other European and Western powers that has had a relationship and a regular engagement with the Muslim world — other than, of course, the American-Saudi links due to oil. This was a result of France’s former colonies in North Africa, which have given it a considerable ethnic and religious minority population. Many of these people have been integrated. The Aga Khan, an influential global Muslim, has a French home. Even Ayatollah Khomeini spent the final period of his exile in Paris before heading to Iran following the overthrow of the Shah in 1979.

The purpose of the preceding paragraphs is to emphasise just how unprepared France is for a spate of terrorist attacks. The reference here is not to policing, intelligence and border control — all of which have been significantly upgraded in Western countries since 9/11 and similar Islamist strikes on London, Paris (previously), Madrid and so on. The suggestion is more in the nature of social realisation that terrorism has brought locations such as Paris to the frontline of a ghastly new war that knows no borders and comes with virtually no intimation. This war has not grown on Paris and a variety of similar communities in Europe over the years and decades, as has been the case with say Beirut (the “Paris of the East”, which ironically also saw a terror strike on Friday) or Mumbai for that matter. It has happened suddenly.

It has come combined with economic slowdown and a change in demography and ambition, making Western Europe a prosperous but retired society. This has meant that Europe has less and less to offer its young people, especially those with limited education. It is bereft of an economy to absorb large populations of migrants (from Africa and the Arab world, a traditional catchment area) or, more recently, refugees from the civil war in Syria and nearby regions.

It is not as if all of the people making the trek from West Asia to France and neighbouring countries are an Islamic State fifth column. Many want a tranquil life and better prospects for their families. To what degree a largely post-industrial Western Europe — though Germany and to a degree France are the last holdouts of manufacturing — can satisfy these urges is unclear. In the coming decade, with deflation as a real prospect, Europe will be a great place to live in if you are well off. It will not be if you are poor or looking to rise up the ladder. For working-class migrants and for white trash alike, there are problems in store.

Not all of them will turn to terrorism but social tensions are inevitable. There are an estimated 5,000-6,000 white Europeans who have joined the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, some after a quick conversion to Islam, others under the influence of drugs or lacking a purpose in life. About a fifth of this cohort is French. Given this scenario, there will be pressures on governments such as those in Paris to take recourse to a Fortress Europe approach and shut the doors to more refugees.

That aside, nationalist parties, merging identity politics with populist, protectionist economics, are already a growing phenomenon in Europe and can be expected to expand their constituencies. From the fringes of French politics 30 years ago, the National Front got 18 per cent of the vote in the presidential election of 2012.

The next election is in mid-2017, 18 months away. Who would bet against the National Front doing even better

“Urban guerrilla” terrorist attacks, with the assailants scaling walls, running down narrow lanes and backstreets, and disappearing into the warren-like geography of inner cities, was a feature of the Mumbai attacks of November 26, 2008. It was speculated then that these were likely tactics to hold to ransom a city such as New York or older European towns. In fact, the New York police studied the Mumbai attacks for just this purpose. Paris is experiencing what Mumbai suffered seven years ago. All of Europe has been put on alert.

The author is senior fellow, Observer Research Foundation. He can be reached at malikashok@gmail.com