The world in 2016

The year 2015 was replete with record levels of human suffering, geopolitical insecurity and economic uncertainty. Can 2016 be any better The previous year’s legacy of harm and loss is unlikely to be wiped off overnight for the world to witness sudden improvement in the early months of 2016. But there is hope for a gradual betterment in international economic and political conditions if we learn from errors and implement course corrections.

The later part of 2016 can be a happier time with relatively greater peace and justice, provided there is a collective realisation that the future is endangered by sticking to destructive old paradigms.

According to the United Nations, over 60 million people have been forcibly displaced by wars and human rights abuses in 2015, the highest since 1992. Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Ukraine, South Sudan and Burundi are some of the hotspots where violence was so severe this year that it is possible the UN’s figures for those killed, maimed and forced to flee are underestimates.

Since many regions of the world were caught in a deep vortex of warfare in 2015, the prognosis for at least the first few months of the New Year has to be solemn and grim. One influential strategic affairs consultancy based in New York, the Soufan Group, has posed a bold question in its year-ender intelligence brief: “Could 2016 be the Last Year of the Syrian Civil War ” It answers by predicting that “there will likely be many failed ceasefires in Syria before one makes a real difference”, and calls for tempering recent international optimism about breakthroughs in peace talks. Nonetheless, it concludes that we are finally on the right track, as illustrated by the first ever UN Security Council resolution supported by all member states to move towards a negotiated settlement. It will take time for the unanimity in the Security Council to translate into major powers reining in their proxies on the ground in Syria and convincing them to drop the use of force.

There is no guarantee of a full stop on fighting anytime soon, but with both Russia and the United States at least attempting to work in tandem, we have a chance to slowly end this horrific war.

The bit of good news from 2015 is that the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has started losing territory and its so-called caliphate shrank by approximately 14 per cent in the last 12 months. The IHS Conflict Monitor shows that the government of Iraq — backed by Iran, Russia and the US — has fared relatively well by retaking portions of ISIS-held land this year. Kurdish rebels who are favoured by the West have also scored significant victories over the ISIS, whose dream of capturing ever-expanding land has been stalled.

There is a tone of desperation in the latest defiant audio recording from ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who is trying to rally the morale of his jihadist constituency by saying, “If we are touched by death, or by injuries, if we are weakened or hit by calamity, there is no need to be surprised.” His recruitment pitch to extremist Muslims across the world contains a key lesson: “The current battle is not a simple crusade, but a war of all the nations of the infidel nations against the Islamic State. It has never happened in the history of our people that the world has gathered in a single battle like the one taking place today.”

The New Year resolution for 2016 is thus clear-cut: If the international community eschews narrow nationalistic and sectarian agendas, unites, and keeps pressuring the ISIS, the terror group will be beaten. This is a big “if”, especially in light of the counterproductive roles played by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar et al, but Baghdadi is seeing the writing on the wall. Should the countries that directly, and indirectly, sponsored the ISIS at least refrain from their past dirty tricks, we have a genuine possibility of marginalising the monster that has been decimating moderates and minorities through barbaric means.

Even as ISIS is battered on its home turfs in Syria and Iraq, a persistent danger remains that it would strike against myriad enemies globally. The attacks against Russian civilians in Egypt, French citizens in Paris and Americans in San Bernardino are all portents of a difficult security environment in 2016. Even if the ISIS’ de facto state dwindles, its ideology and propaganda will keep inspiring hotheaded and misguided Sunni Muslim youth to carry out suicide missions and other forms of deadly terrorism on soft targets.

To avert or limit heartrending tragedies in the New Year, vigilance and intelligence-sharing among all concerned governments need to be far superior and coordinated than what we got in 2015. Tolerant policies, inter-faith dialogues and de-radicalisation movements will be critical to minimise the rabid attraction for jihadist martyrdom. This applies as much to Muslim countries as to the West, where anti-refugee and anti-immigration sentiment reached an all-time high this year. More racism and xenophobia, be it from a Donald Trump or neo-Nazis in Europe, will harden hearts and play into ISIS’ hands.

A related task in 2016 is to strive for socio-economic inclusion, control burgeoning inequalities and restore a sense of dignity and purpose, not just in the Islamic world, but wherever there are class divisions and polarised societies. To avoid fresh economic crises, which always devastate average people, there has to be a conscious effort to redress faultlines and restructure unfair domestic and international institutions. Such an outcome is only possible if well-intentioned people keep mobilising and pushing governments and corporations to pursue the broader public interest of a decent society to replace the present cutthroat one.

Last but not least is the imperative to address alarming environmental risks. 2015 happened to be the warmest year on record with countless extreme weather events. In 2016, mass movements have to build upon the modest beginning of the Paris climate change agreement and ensure that all parties which signed on to the deal translate their rhetoric into reality on the ground and, also eventually, commit to deeper de-carbonisation in the future.

Nation states, private sector giants, political leaders and terrorist organisations will keep rising and falling in the ebb and flow of the New Year, but planet Earth must not be permitted to be tortured yet again in the process.

The writer is a professor and dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs