Will Ajit Jogi lead a minority govt like HD Kumaraswamy?

Raipur: Chhattisgarh strongman and former chief minister Ajit Jogi has invariably emerged stronger each time he has been written off as a political force in the state.

His detractors in Congress, the party he quit a couple of years ago to float the Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC), were scripting his political obituary by poaching his cadres when he was battling for life in a hospital in Delhi last month.

But, the never-say-die bureaucrat-turned-politician has bounced back out of nowhere and pulled off quite a coup when he wooed BSP supremo Mayawati away from Congress to forge an alliance with his fledgling JCC for the two-phase Assembly polls next month.

Now, Mr Jogi, being projected as a chief ministerial candidate by the alliance, is being compared with Karnataka chief minister and Janata Dal (S) leader H.D. Kumaraswamy who managed to head a government without having the numbers. Mr Jogi could end up being the king and not just a king-maker in Chhattisgarh.

The political alignment of JCC with the BSP has set the stage for a triangular battle when votes are cast on November 12 and 20, making its outcome on December 11 more unpredictable.

While the JCC has a major share of 55 seats, the BSP is to field its candidates in rest 35 seats, as per seat-sharing arrangement between them.

This is going to be the first occasion when Chhattisgarh will witness a triangular contest in the real sense. It will involve the ruling BJP, Congress and JCC-BSP alliance.

The development may thrown up many possibilities after the declaration of results. Key possibilities among them being chief minister Raman Singh securing a fourth term in a row due to division of non-BJP votes, the Congress staging a comeback to power by cashing in on an apparent anti-incumbency factor, and Mr Jogi, being projected as a chief ministerial candidate by the alliance.

“Mr Jogi may emerge as a king maker or even a king if the alliance manages to bag merely ten out of total 90 assembly seats in Chhattisgarh and there will be a hung assembly.

For, the last three assembly polls in Chhattisgarh were real cliffhangers, the difference of vote shares in the 2013 elections between ruling BJP and Opposition Congress being a miserly 0.78 percent”, Raipur-based pollster Prabhash Mishra analysed.

According to him, the alliance may lead to consolidation of SC votes in its favour.

While Mayawati has held considerable sway over SC communities elsewhere in the state, Mr Jogi is believed to be enjoying influence over a strong section of Satnamis, a major SC community in Central Chhattisgarh.

Satnamis, a 35-lakh (one fifth of total electorates of Chhattisgarh) strong anti-Brahmanical order dating back to 19th century, have a sizeable presence in around two dozen Assembly constituencies in the state, influencing outcome of polls there.

Mr Jogi, whose father was a Satnami, is considered “pride” of the community being the first chief minister of Chhattisgarh after the state was carved out of Madhya Pradesh in 2000.

“The alliance will emerge as formidable combination since vote bases of both Mr Jogi and Ms Mayawati are transferrable and hence can consolidate to ensure unexpected gain of seats for it,” a JCC leader said.

But, not many Satnamis supported his view. “The perception of Mr Jogi’s reported proximity to chief minister Raman Singh, may lead to erosion of his base among the Satnamis in this poll,” said Satnami leader and Kharora Janpad president Vedram Manhre.

Congress spokesman Sailesh Nitin Trivedy said,  “The alliance would rather dent BJP in the polls since the ruling party held nine out of total 10 Assembly constituencies reserved for SC in the state.”

BJP has however predicted the party would gain in the triangular contest following division of anti-BJP votes particularly among the SC communities.