Survey predicts hung House in Karnataka

Bengaluru: With just three weeks to go for Karnataka election, a pre-poll survey has predicted that while neither the BJP nor the Congress is going to get a majority on its own in the 224-member Assembly, the saffron party will improve its vote share and number of seats.

The JAIN-Lokniti CSDS pre-poll survey, conducted in mid-April 2018, shows the Congress staring at a startling drop from 122 seats to 85-91, and the BJP, which had won 40 seats in 2013, gaining ground but not managing to reach the magic mark with 89-95 seats.

Though chief minister Siddaramaiah is the preferred choice of three out of every ten respondents, the survey suggests that the Congress’ gamble to accord minority religion status to the Lingayats-Veerashaivas — a move aimed at driving a wedge in the strong support that the BJP enjoyed in this influential and dominant caste — may have done it more harm than good.

While only one out of every four Lingayat voters was planning to support the Congress, the BJP appears slightly ahead among the Vokkaligas. This trend could be critical in deciding the electoral outcome. 

The third political player in the state, the JD(S), is projected as securing 32-38 seats, less than the 40 seats they secured in 2013, garnering a lion’s share of Vokkaliga vote.

As a chief ministerial candidate, the BJP’s B.S. Yeddyurappa is a close second to Mr Siddaramaiah with the support of one-fourth of the respondents, while the JD(S) CM aspirant H.D. Kumaraswamy was the preferred choice of two out of every 10 respondents.

But for the Karnataka voter, the survey suggests, the chief ministerial face of a particular party is not the main consideration in deciding who to vote for.

Two of every five respondents said that party was the key factor and close to half the respondents said that the candidate in their constituency would be kept in mind when deciding their vote preference.

While the Siddaramaiah government’s welfare schemes were looked at favourably, three-fourth of those who were satisfied with the government wanted to give the ruling party another chance, but three-fourth of those dissatisfied with the government were clear that it did not merit a second chance.

With a large majority satisfied with the state government could help boost the Congress’ chances, voters are also happy with the Central government led by Narendra Modi and might want to reward it by voting for the BJP. Thus, turning the Karnataka election into a bettle between CM Siddaramaiah and PM Modi. As compared to the 2013 Karnataka Assembly polls, the survey projects a mere two percentage point difference between the Congress and the BJP’s vote share. While the Congress’ vote share is likely to remain unchanged, the rise in the BJP’s vote percentage is due to the consolidation of votes that in 2013 were polled separately by the BJP and its two splinter parties — the Karnataka Janatha Paksha and the BSR Congress. The amalgamation of that vote by the united BJP is a three percentage points rise in vote share this time around.

The JD(S) vote share remains more or less where it was in 2013, the survey said.