BJP faces a litmus test on Modi's home turf

The timing of the Gujarat elections is vital. The Election Commission announced on Wednesday it will be held in two phases, on December 9 and 14. The electoral battle in the political backyard of Prime Minster Narendra Modi will have a great place in the contemporary political mythology of India. The results will be announced on December 18, the same day when the Himachal Preadesh verdict is out.

The Congress Party’s internal analysis is that Rahul Gandhi’s taking over of party affairs is happening at a “very opportune” time. There could not have been a better time for Mr Gandhi as the shattered confidence of business community, low growth graph and absence of promised jobs poses new challenges for Mr Modi. The BJP’s nervousness about Gujarat elections is telling.

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is leading the charge; and so far has been able to make a mark. This has forced the BJP to call in hardliner Yogi Adityanath for the campaign.

It would be in the fitness of things to say that these polls are a litmus test for Mr Modi’s popularity and Amit Shah’s artful machinations. These are also a test of people’s response to the demonetisation drive and Goods and Services Tax. If it spans out well, the polls will be an endorsement of Mr Gandhi’s coronation.

But the elevation of the Congress vice-president — fifth in the generation ladder — is not without complexities and challenges. Mr Gandhi would be required to maintain a “right balance” between young and old and also between leaders who have been working closely with him as also those who have been the eyes and ears of Sonia Gandhi.

With Mrs Gandhi all set to hand over the baton to Mr Gandhi after 19 years, it goes without saying that the real challenge for Mr Gandhi will be to present himself as a “clear alternative to Mr Modi”. In other words, all sections of voters ought to be convinced that Mr Modi has failed and, to a great extent, even cheated the electorate. On this backdrop, I find it duty-bound to share some of the critical and perhaps bitter findings of the survey conducted recently, in key constituencies in Gujarat, by G.V. Sudhakar Rao Foundation.

According to the survey, an overwhelming 50-60 per cent of respondents say that they would support Mr Modi as a “vote catcher” despite all his failures.

The general response is that Mr Modi as Prime Minister of India deserves “some more time” and help from Gujarati voters. That way, the critical take away is while overwhelming voting may go against Vijay Rupani and Anandiben Patel, Mr Modi factor can still save the day for the BJP. In fact, anti-incumbency would have been more had Ms Patel continued in the post as eight out of 10 voters in hubs like Ahmedabad and Rajkot say it is Ms Patel who spoiled BJP’s prospects.

We must try to understand the “import” of Yogi as a campaigner from these perspectives. Gujarat is rightly called a “Hindutva laboratory”. The growing dependence on Yogi is a clear testimony to the fact that the BJP is at the receiving end. The party is on the defensive.

This automatically gives an upper hand to the Congress. There are few more advantages for the Congress on the table. The three expected key players in this year’s Gujarat polls, Hardik Patel, Jignesh Mewani and Alpesh Thakore, are backing the anti-BJP crusade, which is bound to help the Congress.

The Congress campaign so far has been able to pin point the distorted “developmental model” of Gujarat. Further, according to the 2011 Census, only 16.7 per cent households in rural areas and 69 per cent households in urban areas get treated tap water. There is a strong anti-incumbency mood everywhere — from Surat to Saurashtra, and also in hubs like Bhuj and Mehsana. The Congress that way has a luxury of eclipsing the “Moditva phenomenon” in his own home state.

But the game is not yet over, as the BJP would not leave anything to chance. The fall of the BJP in Gujarat would automatically pave the way for a more difficult election in 2019 for Mr Modi. No one knows this better than Modi-Shah duo. Thus, it would be in fitness of things to remind all the Congress leaders and well-wishers that they should be prepared for an all-out battle in which established rules may be broken.

The BJP has few plans up their sleeves and the Congress should be aware of these. The BJP strategists may plunge into the game like wounded tigers. No one understands this better than the illustrious Mr Patel who knows the politics of Gujarat much better than most Congressmen. One is only tempted to use an oft-repeated American saying — “those who fail to learn from history are forced to repeat it”. The Congressmen and women trusted too much in SP-Congress alliance in Uttar Pradesh earlier this year, but the outcome was shocking.

Importance of a Congress victory
The Congress has to prepare itself to fight out the BJP in Gujarat; it also has to fight to establish a government of its own. In 2015, Mr Modi lost two crucial elections — Delhi and Bihar — though these two could not really shake up Mr Modi’s support base. But, Congress victory in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh would make a great difference. The fact that Mr Gandhi is getting elevated at this juncture is also significant.

BJP’s defeat along with the victory of some regional players in Gujarat would not serve the real purpose of taking the battle into the Modi’s camp.

Now, on a more important issue: we have a situation wherein faced with high-stake elections in Gujarat, the BJP will highlight nationalistic and pro-Hindutva issues and also take up emotive issues concerning poorer and marginalised sections.

Mr Modi is definitely going to dedicate much of his time in election campaigns and to supplement him comes in Yogi.

My political senses suggest that the BJP will try to steal all the credit for the Sardar Sarovar Dam and heap all the blame on the Congress. It is also likely to highlight the number of slain Kashmiri terrorists. (The BJP claims that there has been about 45 per cent drop in infiltration attempts, and about 180 militants and some of their top-level leaders have been killed in J&K.) In all likelihood, the saffron party will also highlight the surgical strikes carried out by the Indian Army last year. It will also highlight issue of triple talaq.

The BJP of 2017 is different from the one in 2004. Post India Shining fallout, the BJP has learnt its lessons pretty fast. It is also a fact that the BJP’s foot soldiers’ reach has increased manifold since 2004. On the contrary comes in Congress inertia. Even before the first ball is bowled, several Congress leaders are giving an indication that the war in Mr Modi’s own turf — Gujarat — is already won. This is a dangerous trend. Complacency can never win, specially in today’s politics.

On this backdrop, one ought to refer to the local body bypolls in Gujarat held in October, wherein the BJP consolidated its position in few pockets that were Congress strongholds earlier. Now, if the anti-incumbency mood were strong, this wouldn’t have happened.

The Congress has actually never snatched victory, that’s a reality. Now, it is time they change the narrative! No match is won till the last ball is delivered!

So what all does the Congress need to do? It has to take the battle seriously till the last moment, ensure booth-level presence of party workers and reach out to all the sections of society. In the campaign strategy, the Congress needs to focus on BJP’s faulty claims about development wherein the BJP only helped the rich and harmed the interests of the poor.

The writer is founder of the Prof. G.V. Sudhakar Rao Foundation and a former chairman of the Andhra Pradesh Electronic Development Corporation