India-Pakistan peace process is too precious to abandon

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is received by his Pakistan counterpart, Mr Nawaz Sharif, in Lahore on December 25. — PTI

Going by the visuals of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stopover in Lahore — Nawaz Sharif personally receiving Modi, both hugging each other warmly, walking together hand in hand, hopping in to the waiting helicopter, Modi getting introduced to Sharif’s family members and touching Sharif’s mother’s feet in the Hindu tradition of showing respect, served his favourite saag and vegetables cooked in desi ghee, exchange of presents, Sharif personally seeing off Modi — one would imagine that India and Pakistan are the closest of allies and Modi and Sharif are the best buddies. It looked like a scene out of a Bollywood blockbuster.

Millions on both sides of the border wished it were true.

Was it really as spontaneous as claimed Was it pre-arranged Was this a great “statesman-like” act and a welcome break from “protocol-driven politics”, as Sushma Swaraj claimed, or a “frivolous, unpredictable” approach “marked by fits, starts and abrupt u-turns” as derided by Congress leader Anand Sharma Should Yashwant Sinha’s reminder that Pakistan has a history of walking out of commitments or interpreting them in ways contrary to what they meant be ignored

In spite of all disappointments of the past, Modi’s goodwill gesture, spontaneous or otherwise, deserves to be welcomed. It was a characteristic Modi masterstroke. It instantly triggered an atmosphere of positivity and optimism and opened another phase of serious efforts at normalisation of Indo-Pak relations.

No three-hour-long stopover of a head of a government was greeted so positively globally. The majority of people in India and Pakistan favour warmer and closer relations between the two countries. Both Modi & Nawaz should be complimented for this bold and politically risky initiative as certain constituencies remain hostile to prospects of genuine India-Pak rapprochement.

No political leader understands the power of visuals as much as does Narendra Modi nor does anyone make such a smart use of Twitter to create a dramatic impact. In a single tweet, Modi changed the headlines of all Indian TV channels: dropping the issues related to Arun Jaitley and Kirti Azad, they were jostling to get pictures of Modi’s stopover in Lahore.

On the Pakistani side, Modi’s gesture was welcomed, besides the government, by Bilal Bhutto of PPP and Imran Khan of Tehrik-e-Insaaf.

Modi also took the wind out of Pakistan’s persistent international propaganda, especially in the Arab world, that India was opposed to dialogue and peace. Having suffered a massive defeat in Bihar and witnessed another washout of a parliamentary session without passing the GST, a “jaadu ki jhappi” with Sharif would have been quite a relief. Modi, who has already earned a formidable reputation with his confident summitry with world leaders, has risen to the stature of a world statesman thanks to his Lahore surprise. This was as imaginative as A.B. Vajpayee’s bus trip to Lahore in 1999.

Pakistani citizens have, all along, perceived him as a hardline Hindu leader seeped in RSS ideology and allegedly tainted with the Gujarat communal riots. But Modi’s conduct during his stopover gave them a reality check; he appeared a simple, courteous, gentle and respectful person. By touching the feet of Sharif’s mother he won the hearts of millions of Pakistani mothers.

What has happened since August 2015 when a combative Sushma Swaraj demanded a response from the Pakistani NSA by midnight and September when, though staying in the same hotel in New York, Modi and Sharif didn’t exchange even a glance Perhaps both sides have realised the need to show understanding of each other’s sensitivities and limitations. India has concluded there is no alternative to dialogue and it is unrealistic to expect a visiting Pakistani government representative not to mention the “K” word and publicly refuse to meet the Hurriyat leaders.

The flak which Sharif received on return from UFA and the fact that the duties of NSA were taken away from Sartaj Aziz after Delhi fiasco brought home this fact unmistakably. Pakistan also realises that the BJP, being a coalition partner in the J&K government, can’t allow open Hurriyat-Pak leaders’ parleys. And the aggressive, 24x7 news channels put too much of pressure on the interlocutors. So, holding the meeting of the NSAs and FSs of India and Pakistan in Bangkok was a creative way of skirting these factors.

Restoration of the “K” word in the joint statement after the meeting of the two NSAs in Bangkok would have pleased Rawalpindi. In the past, Pakistan took India’s participation in any Afghanistan-related conference like a red rag to a bull.

Recently, it has shown some understanding of India’s legitimate concerns in Afghanistan. The signing of the much-delayed Tapi project in Turkmenistan also hints at change in Pakistan’s attitude.

The new NSA, Gen. Nasir Khan Janjua, leading the Pakistani side in parleys with Ajit Doval, seemed to suggest that the Pakistan Army might be supportive of the dialogue partially, if not wholly.

We are opposed to third-party intervention but not to third-party nudging. Some pressure on India from Uncle Sam isn’t ruled out. The US, Saudi Arabia, UAE and China might have nudged Pakistan to mend its relations with India, the fastest-growing economy. Pak-trained terrorists are becoming a menace to them as well.

Modi will have to counter the Akhand Bharat vision of the RSS reiterated by Ram Madhav within 24 hours of his return from Lahore. The attack in Pathankot on January 2 by Pakistani terrorists was again a reminder that a week is a long time in India-Pakistan relations. It feels like déjà vu. Questions on whether Sharif has the power to deliver will be raised. Is the Pakistan Army really on board Opponents of dialogue with Pakistan will mock Modi for his out-of-the-box gesture of friendship with Sharif and stress the futility of FS-level talks in Islamabad. But the cancellation of talks of the FSs will mean falling prey to the opponents of dialogue and peace. For a change, Sharif called Modi and promised action on the leads given by India. Past experience will warrant scepticism about his ability to take action. Nonetheless, Indo-Pak talks must continue with frankness, candour and irrefutable facts. The peace process is too precious to abandon.

Its dividends are obvious: bilateral trade should jump, connectivity to Central Asia will help us in energy security, Saarc can become an engine of South Asian economic progress, the Hurriyat will lose steam, violence in the J&K will decline, so will defence expenditure.

Fear of failure and mishap shouldn’t deter us from trying what is right and in India’s long-term national interests and can contribute to regional peace, stability and economic progress.

Can the Pakistan Army and the ISI, some day, undergo change of heart and stop sending trained terrorists across the border with India If wishes were horses, we will fly.

The writer is a former ambassador