New party before Rajasthan polls in 2018?

Jaipur: In a throwback to 2008, the ruling BJP and its archrival Congress may face stiff challenge from a new political front in Rajasthan in 2018. Though, Assembly elections are two years away but political alignments have already begun strongly indicating emergence of a front around that time.

In 2008, the BJP failed to retain power but the Congress too fell short of a clear majority forcing it to form a coalition government. However now, Kirori Lal Meena, who had revolted and rocked the BJP’s boat a decade ago, independent MLA Hanuman Beniwal, who parted ways with the ruling party five years ago, and senior BJP leader Ghanshyam Tiwari, who is almost on the verge of doing the same, are likely to float a new party or create a loose front of other disgruntled party leaders and political parties.  

While Mr Meena and Mr Beniwal have been working in tandem within the Assembly and holding political rallies together for quite some time, Mr Tiwari, is still in the party, has begun sharing stage with them on non-political events after formally taking over as president of Deendayal Vahini — a parallel organisation launched by his son two years ago. Mr Tiwari has been using this platform to openly criticise the state leadership and his own government.

Sources say all three of them share a common dislike for CM Vasundhara Raje, who allegedly sidelined them. Both Tiwari and Mr Meena were ministers in the Raje’s previous government but never came to terms with working style. Another common thread binding them is their RSS background. They are the Sangh loyalists, though Sangh’s refusal to intervene forced them to chart their own course.

Together, they can be quite damaging for the BJP and Congress, say political experts. They are political heavyweight in their own right. While Mr Tiwari and Mr Meena have won many elections, Mr Beniwal is the son of former MLA Bhim Singh.

The former president of Rajasthan University Students Union and two times MLA is popular among youth of his caste. In fact, caste is what makes them a formidable challenge. Mr Meena is undisputedly the biggest leader of his community dominantly present in eastern Rajasthan and Jaipur division.  Similar is the case of Mr Beniwal in Nagaur region — the heart of Jat politics. Tiwari is an exception. A fine orator. He is not a caste leader in their mould but is considered as a formidable Brahmin face of the BJP after Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi. With their Sangh background, they may also find grassroot support among the RSS, as, sources say, the Sangh is not very fond of Ms Raje. The Sangh has not sent anyone for organisational secretary’s post ever since Prakash Chandra had to quit after post poll tiff with her.

In a state, where others account for average 25% votes and 10% seats in every election, a political front comprising three dominant castes with a combines vote share of around 37% (Jats 15, Meena 12 and Brahmin 10) can easily dash hopes of the Congress and BJP; particularly when AAP also seems serious on Rajasthan. The party had appointed Manish Sisodia in-charge of the state.

Mewar and Marwar where Congress and BJP locked in direct contest, rest of the state is nothing less than a lottery because of multi cornered contests with exception of a strong wave like 1998 or 2013 when Congress and BJP got more than 150 seats.

Just to understand “Other” factor, one needs to look at the votes share on seats contest. For example, the share of these fringe players in overall votes could be meager 4 to 6 per cent but there vote share on seats contested could be as high as 20 to 30 per cent. If some fringe players like NUZP, with 8 per cent votes on just 25 seats contested in two districts, it might create a hung assembly. Dr. Kirori’s party for 7 percent votes for 4 seats. But, a crucial point is the number of seats their candidates came second pushing Congress to third or fourth position, which is why despite the fact that the new front is being formed by BJP rebels, it’s the Congress that has more to worry.