BJP worried, wants PM Modi to hold more Gujarat rallies

New Delhi: With the latest opinion poll predicting a neck and neck fight between the BJP and the Congress in Gujarat, along with reports of the Opposition party attracting considerable Patidar and OBC votes, a worried BJP wants Prime Minister Narendra Modi to ramp up the number of rallies and public meets he addresses in the run-up to the two-phased polls in the state.

Mr Modi has 12 more rallies scheduled, but is now expected to increase the number and intensify his attacks on Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi.

Saffron heavyweights’ worries were ignited by an opinion poll’s unexpected results — a dip in Mr Modi’s popularity, and an impressive spike in Mr Gandhi’s connect with people.  

According to the third and final round of tracker poll conducted by Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News survey whose results were released on Monday, the Gujarat Assembly elections are headed for a photo finish.

The survey, which polled 3,655 voters in 50 constituencies, claims that both the Congress and the BJP will get 43 per cent of votes, a drop of 16 percentage points for the BJP in just four months.

A similar survey in August had pegged the BJP’s vote-share at 59 per cent, and the one in October had predicted 47 per cent of votes.

The Congress it seems has spectacularly turned its fortunes around after spending 22 years in the Opposition in the state. In August, as per the survey, the Congress had only 29 per cent of the vote-share. This increased to 41 per cent in October, and now stands at 43 per cent, a growth of 14 percentage points in just four months.

The survey also states that Mr Modi’s popularity has dipped by 18 points from 82 per cent in August to 64 per cent in November. While on the other hand, soon-to-be Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen by eight percentage points, from 40 per cent in August to 57 per cent in the latest survey.

“The Congress’ recovery in the state has been nothing short of stunning. The party had trailed the BJP by 30 points in the first half of August… By Round-2 in October the humongous gap had shrunk to just 6 points, and now with the BJP’s lead having completely evaporated it seems that the race could be won by either of the two contestants as they enter the final lap,” the survey noted.  

Sources said that based on these figures and ground reports of a strong anti-incumbency due to GST and demonetisation, local units of the BJP have sought an increase in the number of rallies and public meetings to be addressed by Mr Modi.

The other major factor is the turning away of Patidars, who have traditionally been BJP supporters.

The Congress has managed a rainbow coalition of OBCs, dalits and Patidars led by young leaders Alpesh Thakore, Jignesh Mevani and Hardik Patel.

In such a scenario, the BJP believes that the Prime Minister remains its biggest vote catcher with Gujaratis who take pride in their “son of the soil” making it to the top political post in the country.

Mr Modi was scheduled to address more than 30 rallies in the run-up to the Assembly polls, of which 12 are left. Surat, Dahod, Bhabhar and Lunavada are some of the areas where the Prime Minister is scheduled to address the public in the few days of campaigning left.

Also taking into account the onslaught of Cyclone Ockhi, which has hit the campaigning schedules of all parties, the BJP is likely to reconsider the Prime Minister’s schedule.

Battle for Gujarat

• Lokniti-CSDS-ABP News survey, which polled 3,655 voters in 50 constituencies, claims that both the Congress and the BJP will get 43% of votes in Gujarat.
• Survey also says that Narendra Modi’s popularity has dipped from 82% in August to 64% in November, while Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has risen from 49% in August to 57% in the latest survey.