UP polls 2017: Down to BSP, SP-Cong in 67 western UP seats

New Delhi: With high-octane campaigning for 67 seats in western Uttar Pradesh’s second phase polling coming to an end on Monday evening, the contest is expected to be mainly between the BSP and the SP-Congress alliance.

In this Muslim and dalit-dominated region, the going for the BJP could be tough. The party apparently had the best shot in the 73 seats, which went to the polls in the first phase on February 11.

A Modi wave had swept Uttar Pradesh, including its western belt, during the 2014 general elections. But, in the absence of a wave, electoral dynamics of caste and communities are expected to play a key role in deciding the fate of the contesting parties.  

During the 2012 Assembly polls, of the 67 assembly constituencies in this part of western Uttar Pradesh, the SP had bagged 34, the BSP 18 and the BJP 10, while the Congress could get only three.

Muslim votes are expected to play a crucial role, and could be the deciding factor in majority of the constituencies in the second phase.

The BJP, which had earlier declared the SP as its main rival, changed tack to announce the BSP as the “main force” in Uttar Pradesh. Sources revealed that the BJP also intends to “go soft” on the BSP.

Reports from the state indicated that BJP chief Amit Shah at his Pilibhit rally on Monday chose not to mention the BSP.

Addressing a rally at Lakhimpur Kheri, Prime Minister Narendra Modi kept his focus on SP leader and state chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. While he flayed Mr Yadav for being “blinded by absolute power”, he avoided launching a scathing attack on BSP chief Mayawati. His only reference to her was when he questioned Akhilesh Yadav’s role in probing corruption charges against the BSP supremo. “Why did you shelve probe into scams that took place during Mayawati’s regime?” the PM asked the UP chief minister.

Trying to woo the minorities, Ms Mayawati while speaking at Saharanpur on Monday warned Muslims that if they voted for the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance, they would be favouring the BJP in the assembly elections.

Incidentally, the UP chief minister had also been dropping hints of a “tacit understanding” between the BSP and the BJP.

During the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in this part of western UP (with 67 seats), though the Muslims apparently went against the BJP, the party swept majority of the constituencies following counter-consolidation of dalit, Jat and upper caste vote banks in its favour.

The situation is not the same, and the fight is expected to be between the BSP’s Dalit-Muslim combination and the SP-Congress’ Muslim-OBC-upper caste dynamics.

With both the SP and the BSP fighting over the minorities, the BJP is hoping for a split in the Muslim vote bank, and a counter-consolidation like that in the 2014 general elections.

Though the RLD has also fielded candidates in the region, political pundits claimed this outfit hardly has any presence.

Some of the key candidates in the fray for the second phase include SP’s Azam Khan from Rampur, Congress’ Imran Masood from Saharanpur and Jitin Prasada from Tilha, besides BSP’s Nawab Kazim Ali (four-time MLA) from Tanda.