UP polls: Parties still banking on caste politics

Congress general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad has rightly observed “UP is UP and Bihar is Bihar”. While arch rivals Janata Dal (U) and the RJD came together against the BJP for the Bihar elections in 2015, a similar alliance — between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party — is not yet on the cards in Uttar Pradesh.

Both the Samajwadi Party and the BSP produced dire performances in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. While the BSP failed to open its account in the 16th Lok Sabha, the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led party won merely five seats. Two years later, however, they remain confident of crubing the BJP’s rise in the upcoming state Assembly elections.

The BSP believes that the Dalit-Muslim combination will stop the BJP from coming to power, and the Samajwadi Party is hoping that OBC unity will sway minorites its way. The Congress Party feels it can stay relevant if it wins back Brahmins and attracts minorities in some constituencies.

Although the BJP won the highest number of Lok Sabha seats from UP, it has realised the state is neither Gujarat nor Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh, where it has been winning Assembly elections. The BJP’s problems begin from the need to announce a chief ministerial candidate. If does not project a “face” against Ms Mayawati and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav, then this could be seen as an admission of division in the party. The Congress is sensing a fractured mandate. This is because it sees the BJP’s development plank cannot work in UP as anti-incumbency against the Centre is visible.

The polarisation plank wom’t work either as this will not dent Ms Mayawati’s support base among dalits.

At present, neither the Samajwadi Party nor the BSP has emrged as an alternative to the BJP which is confident that the upper castes, as well as a section of OBCs and dalits, will back it. But there are six to seven months left for the elections, and this is a crucial period for any party.

The BJP won all Lok Sabha seats in Delhi and emerged as a main party in Bihar with its allies, LJP and RLSP, in the general election, but this did not translate to good results in the Assembly polls.

Sources said that development cannot be the key agenda for the main players in UP where castes and combination of castes always influence elections. “If you give tickets on the basis of caste and religion, who will talk of development. Minorities want security, Brahmins want greater repesentation, OBCs see themselves as a ruling community and the BSP has the solid vote bank of dalits,” sources said.