Floating voters may hold key to Britain’s EU future

Graeme Williams is sure of only one thing as Britain heads for a momentous referendum on whether to stay in the European Union: He hasn’t a clue which way to vote.

“I’m sitting completely on the fence,” said Willia-ms, a 62-year-old freelance commercial photographer. “Decision-wise, I am definitely completely undecided about which is the right way to go.”

To make up his mind, Williams said that he needs “the right information” — but that neither side in the debate is providing it. Many people in his home town of Hastings, a historic spot on the UK’s south coast where invaders from France arrived in 1066, feel the same way, he said.

He may well be right. According to recent opinion polls, up to a fifth of British voters remain undecided on how to cast their ballot in the referendum on June 23. On that day they will face the question: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union ” It’s a binary choice, but not a simple one. Instead it’s shot through with feelings about nationhood, identity and culture, as well as economics.

How voters answer the referendum question will help shape the future of the UK and the EU. A British exit — Brexit — could rock financial markets, sink EU hopes of closer integration and roil relations between the United States and Britain. Yet a vote to remain is no guarantee of calm: It could trigger a new phase for Europe, with some countries pressing for more integration and others seeking the flexibility sought by Britain.

Polls show the referendum battle is volatile but close, with most finding voters fairly evenly split. One YouGov poll this month had 44 per cent in favour of remaining and 40 per cent in favour of leaving, while an ICM poll had 43 per cent for remaining and 47 per cent for leaving. The Undecideds will likely determine the outcome.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman and founder of polling firm ComRes, said the referendum was unusually unpredictable. “I think there are two angles to this,” he said. “One is the straight proportion of people who say they don’t know (how to vote), and the other is the proportion of people who say they may change their mind. And when you add both of those together you realise that the race is still definitely wide open.”

A town of 90,000 overlooking the English Channel, Hastings illustrates Britain’s confusion over Europe in several ways. It encapsulates national sovereignty: This is the place that gave its name to the battle where William the Conqueror of Normandy defeated England’s King Harold 950 years ago. Yet it’s closer to France than London, and has benefited from EU funds.

Since the late 1970s, Hastings has been a political bellwether. At general elections, whichever party won in Hastings went on to form the national government, and now the town broadly reflects the EU debate. A study by the polling company YouGov rated opinions on the EU in East Sussex, the county where Hastings lies, as “mixed, leaning eurosceptic.”

Some of its residents are taking a keen interest in the referendum: One recent debate passionately discussed everything from whether vacuum cleaners had been made less powerful because of EU rules to whether Britain would regain more control over fishing — a key local industry — if it voted for Brexit.

Among those making up their minds is small business owner Howard Martin, 53, who said he had voted for all Britain’s main political parties over the years. In Martin’s view, much of the debate over Brexit has focused, wrongly, on the vexed issue of migration. Proponents of leaving the EU see Brexit as a way of limiting the high levels of immigration that Britain has faced over the past 15 years. For Martin, migrant numbers are more a matter of policing borders properly.

Instead, he’s more worried about the economic impact of Brexit, but unclear of what it might be. “They (the Leave campaign) don’t have a picture of what it’ll be like when we leave, if we leave,” he said when first interviewed in April. Equally, he found claims by the Conservative government that leaving the EU would wreak economic damage to be too simplistic. And like many others Reuters spoke to, he was unconvinced by an official leaflet, despatched to all households, making the case for Britain to stay in the EU.

“It just seemed like a marketing leaflet, which swayed me heavily against it,” said Vicki Duffey, owner of a coffee shop and a Labour voter. “It felt very manipulative.”

Suspicion of politicians runs deep, including of Boris Johnson, a popular Conservative who initially sat on the fence before belatedly backing Brexit. Lucy McCarthy, a 40-year-old project manager for a charity, said: “Take Boris, he’s not to be trusted. And George (Osborne, the UK Chancellor and supporter of Britain staying in the EU), he just wants to be Prime Minister eventually. It’s farcical. So I don’t think you can really trust them. I don’t think that they have our best interests at heart whatever they’re arguing.”

Even the intervention of US President Barack Obama, who last month urged Britain to stay in the EU, seemed to have little effect. While Martin, the small businessman, said Obama’s words incli-ned him towards the “Remain” camp, McCar-thy was sceptical. “I think (Obama’s stance) was to be expected because it’s in all the powerful nations’ best interests that we stay in Europe.”