Rivals tied in battleground states

Supporters of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump dressed up as her rival Hillary Clinton and Trump gather for a rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania. (Photo: AFP)

The race for the Oval Office tightened significantly in the past week as several swing states that Republican Donald Trump must win shifted from favouring Democrat Hillary Clinton to toss-ups, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.

The two presidential candidates are now tied in Florida and North Carolina, and Ms Clinton’s lead in Michigan has narrowed so much that the state is too close to call. Ohio remains a dead heat and Pennsylvania is now tilting to Ms Clinton.

While Ms Clinton remains the odds-on favourite to win Tuesday’s election, Mr Trump now has a plausible route to victory especially if there is a sharp fall in turnout among African-Americans from the levels of the 2012 election. Still, Mr Trump must win both Florida and North Carolina to have a good chance of winning the White House. Ms Clinton could lose both states and still win.

The States of the Nation project estimates Ms Clinton’s odds of winning the needed 270 Electoral College votes at about 90 per cent, down from 95 percent last week.

If the election had been held Wednesday, the project estimates, she would have had 256 solid electoral votes and an estimated final tally of about 302 votes, to 236 for Mr Trump. Last week, she had 278 solid votes and a final tally of 320 votes, to 218 for Mr Trump.

By any measure, however, Mr Trump has had a good run in the past week. He has seen his support grow in 24 states while losing ground in 11. Conversely, Ms Clinton’s support grew in 13 states while shrinking in 22.

Mr Trump’s gains came in a period in which he had few new controversies to fend off, while Ms Clinton faced renewed scrutiny of her email practices. Most respondents to the latest survey were asked about their support for the candidates after FBI director James Comey announced last Friday the agency was examining newly discovered emails that might pertain to Ms Clinton’s use of a private email server while she was secretary of state.

Mr Trump and other Republicans seized on the news to question Ms Clinton’s credibility, while Democrats complained it could unfairly influence voters so close to the election.

The States of the Nation project is a survey of about 15,000 people every week in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C.

It is unclear if the FBI inquiry upset the balance in the race. But many national polls have found the race tightening in recent days, especially after FBI email case.

Polling averages last week showed Ms Clinton with a lead of between 4 and 7 points. Those averages now show her lead at just 2 to 3 points.

Last week, the project had her leading 47 per cent to 40 per cent. This week, it dropped to 45 per cent to 42 per cent. In the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll from October 28 to November 1, Ms Clinton led Mr Trump by 6 percentage points among likely voters, the same margin as before the FBI announcement.