Split in alliance will benefit Shiv Sena, not BJP

Shiv Sena’s decision to snap ties with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming 192 municipal council and 20 nagar panchayat polls will impact the latter more, according to insiders.

Sources said the Sena had performed better in the 2009 and 2013 elections. So, if the alliance were broken, the BJP would suffer the most.

In the municipal council and nagar panchayat polls held between 2009 and 2013, of the total 4,826 seats, the Sena had won 454 seats and the BJP 437 seats. The difference is a significant 17 seats. As against this, the NCP had won 1,300 seats, while the Congress had won 1,293 seats.“There is a lot more to gain for the Sena than the BJP if the alliance is broken,” said a BJP insider.

The real difference is noticeable when one takes note of the results of elections held between 2009 and 2013 for the 10 civic bodies, including Mumbai and Thane. Of the total 1,244 seats in the 10 municipal corporations, the Sena had won 227 seats as against the 205 seats won by the BJP. As against this, the NCP had won 265 seats and the Congress had won 264 seats.

In the 10 municipal corporations for which the elections are due to be held in 2017, elections to big corporations of Mumbai, Thane, Nashik, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad and Nagpur matter the most. The Sena is the dominant ruling partner in both the Mumbai and Thane municipal corporations, while the NCP rules Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad municipal corporations. The BJP is in power only in its stronghold of Nagpur. A BJP insider even said chief minister Devendra Fadnavis did not want to break ties with the Sena for this reason.