Saeed Naqvi | Will air attacks rise after US troops leave Af, Iraq?

Telegenic air attacks like the one that killed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani outside Baghdad airport in January 2020 may well be increasingly on show in theatres like Afghanistan, where the American boots on the ground are now being withdrawn, or Iraq, where the combat mission is supposedly coming to an end. Wait and watch what the US does next.

The United States has conflictual equations with China, Russia and Iran. Pakistan is not in conflict with the US but is clearly in China’s embrace. All these countries have borders with Afghanistan. Did the US spend $2 trillion over 20 years with the benign intent to provide tranquility for these countries on their Afghan borders only to confront these powers elsewhere?

Turkey, or, to be more precise, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has now been roped in to supervise Kabul airport. The Taliban are pretending to throw a ginger fit should Turkey deploy troops to protect the airport. Since the Taliban have to be kept in good humour, Turkey has decided to deploy contractors, engineers, etc. But who will provide them armed protection? The Americans, of course, and clearly from the air. The Americans will obviously have plans to keep an eye on the Bagram airbase too. I have vivid recollections of the US bombing Serbia for 72 days, carving out the state of Kosovo and leave behind what in those days was globally the largest US base, Bondsteel, abutting Macedonia.  

What great urge did the US have in carving out a Muslim state in what was the holiest real estate for the southern Slavs of Serbia, ethnic cousins of the Russians? Well, the first purpose was to hit the Russians where it hurt them. The second was to build bases which radiate power. This is not the pattern on display now.  

Turkey is being given a toehold in Afghanistan, which has the potential of opening vistas across Central Asia, an expansive oil rich block of Turkik speaking people. As in the Balkans, here too the historical, entrenched interests of Russia will be posed in competition.

When a vision of the Ottoman Empire being revived was dangled before President Erdogan, he wasted no time in turning up for prayers in the main square of Tripoli in November 2011. The “Ottoman” dream which faded in the West Asian theatres may well be credible in Central Asia where there is Turkik continuity. Mr Erdogan is unlikely to leap for this elusive carrot, but he may begin to focus a little more time on this theatre. This will be welcome to Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia. The last two will welcome the extreme Islam of the Taliban blending with the Akhwan ul Muslimeen (Muslim Brotherhood), of which Mr Erdogan is now an unabashed leader. This will be expected to be a bulwark against Iran. Binoculars will also be fixed on China’s Uighurs and Russia’s Caucasus.

So long as imperialism has a central role for Israel in West Asia, Iran will remain the target. Little wonder then that American ground forces are being relocated. Just the other day, the US announced the closure of its bases in Sayliyah, Qatar. The base being activated in the utmost secrecy now happens to be in Jordan, out of the range of Iranian missiles.

There is another very good reason to have Mr Erdogan ration some of his time away from West Asia, where the growing influence of the Muslim Brotherhood is causing anxiety to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Egypt, whose suppression of the Brotherhood cannot last eternally. Riyadh is shaken in the south with the advances made by the Houthis from Yemen and has not forgotten the occupation of the Mecca masjid in November 1979 almost at the same time as the Iranian revolution toppled the Shah in Tehran. For two weeks the mosque was occupied by the anti-monarchy extreme Islamists.

Eventually, French troops had to help Saudi soldiers. Since then, the Saudi royal family have had nightmares about a secret anti-monarchy cult, not different from the Brotherhood. There is a tendency to exaggerate the external danger of Shia Islam. The truth is that the “Akhwan”, or the Brothers, with roots inside the kingdom are much more of a danger. In the latest turn in Tunisia, the Brothers may well be the main target.

The Brothers in Egypt will have a huge morale booster if Mr Erdogan without other distractions goes full throttle in his Muslim Brotherhood avatar. The revival of the Brothers in Egypt will be of considerable help to Hamas, which is another name for the Brothers. This will be a thorn in the side of Israel. Notice how many capitals have an interest in the Turkish role in Kabul.  

It is not fanciful that one chapter of the Afghan saga may be coming to a close. But what has always puzzled me is the singular lack of interest in the origin of the catastrophe when the iconic Tajik leader Ahmad Shah Massoud’s exceptional intelligence gathering on Al Qaeda’s operations in Afghanistan hinted at the possibility of 9/11.

In August 2001, he alerted the European Union in the course of an address in Brussels that the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance had learnt that Al Qaeda were planning some action on the American mainland. On September 9, two days before the attack on the Twin Towers in New York, Massoud was assassinated in his hideout on the Tajik border. The two Tunisians, disguised as journalists, detonated their vests as soon as they began their “interview” with Massoud. The passports of the two assassins had been forged in Brussels at about the time Massoud alerted the European Union about the possible attack on the “US mainland”.

Since the Syrian theatre began to quieten down in 2018, there have been reports of militants being flown to northern Afghanistan, exactly the location from where the out-of-work Mujahideen had fanned out to Kashmir, Egypt, Algeria and Syria.

So, is Afghanistan headed for chaos or, as a Marxist analyst predicts: “A Quad is taking shape -- Iran, China, Russia and Pakistan.” If this is correct, has India opted for the wrong Quad?