Wasbir Hussain | Will Ulfa accord really bring peace to Assam?

On December 29, 2023, just around a week ago, yet another rebellion ended in Assam. This time it was the tripartite accord that the Government of India and the Assam state government signed with the United Liberation Front of Asom (Ulfa) in New Delhi in presence of Union home minister Amit Shah and Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Has this peace accord with the Ulfa, formed on April 7, 1979, brought the curtain down finally to insurgency in Assam? The answer is no, because the breakaway faction under the leadership of the elusive Paresh Baruah, which had named itself Ulfa (Independent), is still active and has not given up the practice of hurling grenades or launching the odd attack on the security forces, although in an irregular fashion.

What then has the Ulfa accord achieved? Unlike the peace accord with the Bodo rebels that had initially led to the creation of the Bodoland Autonomous Council, which later got elevated to the Bodoland Territorial Council, the Memorandum of Settlement with the Ulfa does not provide any new autonomous politico-administrative structure. This means that the leadership of the Ulfa who have put their signatures on the agreement, including chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa (who signed under his real name Rajib Rajkonwar) and general secretary Anup Chetia (who signed as Golap Baruah, his actual name), would not come to head any administrative structure, unlike Hagrama Mahilary, for instance, who became the chief executive member of the BTC once the Bodo Accord was signed in 2003 and his rebel group, the Bodo Liberation Tigers (BLT), was disbanded.

Many are already arguing that the Ulfa accord has achieved nothing because one need not carry out an armed insurrection for four-and-a-half-decades leading to the death of around 10,000 people to secure from the government an assurance to resolve inter-state boundary disputes or prevent the enrolment of illegal migrants in Assam’s voters’ list (these are assurances the government has provided in the MoU). But, the Ulfa accord has certainly achieved something which other peace agreements with other organisations in Assam have not.

The Ulfa accord is seen by its leaders as well as Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma as a document that will go a long way to preserve and protect the identity of Assam’s indigenous population, and that way, Assam’s very own identity. What the accord has managed to get from the Government of India is a promise to continue the “guidelines and methodology” adopted for the delimitation exercise conducted in 2023 in future delimitation processes. Now, the 2023 delimitation exercise saw a rejig of populations that is expected to ensure maximum representation for indigenous communities in the 126-member Assam Assembly by keeping non-original inhabitants, mainly migrant settlers from present-day Bangladesh, out. In his New Year interaction with the media, Dr Sarma said the 2023 delimitation has made it impossible for non-indigenous communities to contest and win in 106 of the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam. This is the safeguard that Assam has always wanted and various organisations have been fighting for it.

Another significant provision in the Ulfa accord is that a citizen of the country who is ordinarily resident in an Assembly constituency shall only be entitled to be registered in the voters list of that constituency. No person shall be registered in the voters list of more than one constituency.

This aims at preventing, say, migrant settlers from relocating to other places, vote in another constituency and thereby alter the demographic profile of that area.

Talking to this columnist after the accord was signed, Ulfa general secretary Anup Chetia said: “We never fought for power or position, we battled to safeguard Assam’s and the Assamese identity. If we have been able to secure 106 of the 126 Assembly constituencies in Assam for the indigenous people, I think we have achieved a lot.” The government of Assam will now set up a committee to examine and recommend measures for implementation of political reservations for Other Backward Classes (OBC) and More Other Backward Classes (MOBC) in the urban local bodies and panchayats in the state. This means that there will be reservation of seats for OBCs/MOBCs at the grassroots level elective bodies that will give several communities the rights to decide their development strategy.

Will the recalcitrant Ulfa (Independent) chieftain Paresh Baruah be now under some pressure to rethink on his decision to stay away from possible peace negotiations with New Delhi following the Ulfa accord? The fact remains that the government has succeeded in clinching peace deals with all insurgent groups in Assam who were active in the Bodo heartland, the Dimasa and Karbi inhabited districts, the tea garden belts and now with the Ulfa itself. The only rebel group left to be tackled is Ulfa (Independent). Will the government adopt a strategy to totally sideline the Ulfa (Independent) or will it adopt a strategy to bring this group too to the negotiating table? That’s the big question.

Well, Ulfa (Independent) chief Paresh Baruah has almost welcomed the accord, saying he is happy that the fighters have now managed to be free of the grip of the outfit. Paresh Baruah would not comment on what has been achieved or not by the accord. But the Ulfa (Independent) leader has made a path-breaking statement in an interview after the December 29 Ulfa accord. Paresh Baruah said in a televised interview on NewsLive, Assam’s largest satellite news channel, that if the Government of India agrees to discuss the “historical and political rights of Assam” and the “political issues concerning all communities in the state”, which he calls “United Assam”, the Ulfa (Independent) might consider sitting for peace talks. Of course, Paresh Baruah described this as his personal opinion and said that if New Delhi comes up with such an offer, he would discuss with his colleagues in the outfit. This statement is path-breaking because the Ulfa (Independent) and Paresh Baruah himself has always maintained that there can be no talks with the Government of India unless it agrees to discuss their “core issue” of “sovereignty” for Assam.

The Ulfa accord may have ended the insurgency for its 700-odd cadres who have been living in designated camps, and may even trigger efforts to now bring the Ulfa (Independent) to the negotiating table, but there is no guarantee that no new militant group would emerge in the days ahead if only to avail the government’s rehabilitation packages. This remains a challenge before the government, apart from an effective implementation of the 21-page MoU that has just been signed.