K.C. Singh | Hasina's victory: Time for caution, not complacency

The January 7 elections for the Jatiya Sangsad, Bangladesh’s Parliament, has produced a huge win for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League, with 223 out of 300 seats in its kitty. It is a fourth consecutive term and a fifth one overall for Sheikh Hasina, who first assumed power in 1996. In one of her first remarks after the victory, she thanked India as a “trusted” partner. The Indian government would obviously be happy at her continuance in office.

But the victory has come at a considerable cost. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, which since the restoration of democracy in 1991 has been the principal Opposition party, boycotted the election. While Begum Zia, serving her sentence for corruption, is under house arrest, her son and political heir Tarique Rahman is exiled in London. Consequently, the turnout was a poor 40 per cent, compared to 80 per cent in 2018. Although over 100 foreign poll observers were in Bangladesh, the problem was not so much the actual conduct of the election as what preceded it. In November, UN Special Rapporteurs had noted that “the weaponisation of the judicial system” had enabled the targeting of journalists, human rights defenders and civil society institutions. The Reporters Without Borders (RSF) rates Bangladesh 163 out of 180 nations on press freedom. Consequently, the United States has put restrictions on granting visas of select individuals to generate pressure on the government to improve its conduct.

However, there is no straightforward answer to the political conundrums confronting the government of Sheikh Hasina. Because of the assassination of her family members, especially her father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the then sitting Prime Minister, in a military coup in August 1975, there has always been high political polarisation.

Begum Khaleda Zia is the widow of a former Army Chief and President, who had a suspected role in the military coup against Sheikh Hasina’s father. Even more problematic has been the electoral alliance of the BNP with the Jamaat-e-Islami, popularly addressed as the Jamaat, which sided with the Pakistani military in opposing the independence of Bangladesh. Its Islamist agenda includes the setting up of an Islamic state run according to the Sharia. India views it with suspicion due to its inevitable links to Pakistan’s jihadi network.

Sheikh Hasina began the war crimes trials against the Pakistani collaborators, especially in the Jamaat, in 2010, during her second term as Prime Minister. Delaware Hossain Sayeedi, a preeminent leader of the Jamaat, died in jail last August. Many years of persecution of Jamaat’s leadership and cadres has, at least on the surface, diminished its following. It had at best a five per cent vote share, which can expand quickly due to public sympathy, if the pressure on its membership and leadership eases. The Arab Spring, which overthrew military dictators of Egypt, Libya, etc demonstrated that authoritarian control may decimate the secular Opposition but Islamist forces survive and resurface quickly whenever an opportunity becomes available.

Thus, India has had no option but to back Sheikh Hasina, whatever her poor ratings may be as a democrat. The United States, while targeting her, ignores its own history of giving its allies a long rope on domestic political management. There is the famous remark of US President Franklin D. Roosevelt on a dictator: “He may be an SOB, but he’s our SOB”. But the danger is like President Barack Obama having to contend with the Muslim Brotherhood’s government once the US let Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak fall.

That is a danger that confronts India in Bangladesh, like after the defeat of a pro-India government in the Maldives. Sheikh Hasina has overseen rapid economic growth over her last three consecutive terms. Per capita income has tripled in the last decade and Bangladesh has become the second largest exporter of garments in the world after China. In 2021, garments constituted 85 per cent of Bangladesh’s $51.8 billion exports. The principal export markets are in the West, led by the US. But the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020-22 and resulting global economic slowdown has hurt the exports of Bangladesh. This has led to inflation and a drop in wages. Bangladesh was forced to obtain from the IMF a $5 billion loan last year. Trade has constituted a quarter to a third of the GDP of Bangladesh over the last decade.

This combination of economic stress and democratic recession is a deadly combination that can trigger public protests. The huge drop in voting percentage indicates serious public disappointment with Awami League’s running of domestic affairs. Although the incidents were limited, multiple fires on the eve of the elections also indicated public ire. The Indian government has invested heavily in Sheikh Hasina’s rule. India has had a twofold objective: giving Sheikh Hasina some wins like the trans-Ganga bridge and containing Chinese influence by giving military assistance and refined oil products. The India-Bangladesh Friendship Pipeline (IBFP) has the capacity to transport one million metric tonnes per annum of high-speed diesel to Bangladesh.

The geostrategic importance of Bangladesh for India is self-evident. It provides the shortest route to the seven states in India’s Northeast. It also becomes a vital link in any connectivity project linking South Asia to the 10 Asean nations. Moreover, it is central to India’s sub-regional aspirations via the seven-member Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec). With good economic growth and an economy that has overtaken Pakistan, the pressure on illegal migration to India can diminish.

The real danger to India-Bangladesh relations is this country’s over-dependence on one leader, who has turned 76, without a clear line of succession. India needs to help diminish the trust deficit between the ruling Awami League and Begum Khaleda Zia’s BNP. Pakistan must be keeping lines of support open to the exiled son of Khaleda Zia. India must do so as well. However, the majoritarian orientation of the BJP’s current leadership weakens India’s ability to preach tolerance and consensus to a Muslim majority neighbour with a population of 168 million.

Bangladesh is seriously endangered by climate change and rising oceans. Myanmar faces a tussle for ascendancy between the ruling junta and some ethnic minorities and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army. A stable and friendly Bangladesh is an absolute necessity for India. Sheikh Hasina’s win should not create complacency in New Delhi. Political volcanoes have a tendency to burst when least expected.