Pavan K. Varma | Kashmir on the mend, but threatened by hate rhetoric

The abysmal level of discourse in the ongoing national elections has left millions of Indians appalled. The extent of juvenile and malicious acrimony on issues that are irrelevant to the needs of the common person, has reached a new low of repugnant immaturity. I thought, therefore, that, physically at least, I should reach higher heights, and have been travelling in Kashmir for a few days, truly a paradise on earth.

After a long hiatus, Kashmir too will vote, and one of my purposes was to gauge what has changed here since the abrogation of Article 370 on August 5, 2019. Is there pent-up resentment waiting to erupt, or are things gradually leading to an acceptance of the new reality? On the surface, there is certainly the appearance of normalcy. Is this only a sullen, frozen peace due to the overwhelming presence of our military and para-military forces, or a genuine reconciliation with what now appears to be irreversible? What exactly is the truth between the triumphant propaganda of the government, and the outright condemnation of its critics? 

Some facts are incontrovertible. Kashmir has never seen such a tourism boom. In 2023, Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) received a record 2.11 crore tourists, more than half of which were for Kashmir. Flights going to Srinagar are filled to capacity.  In peak season, one cannot get a room for love or money, even though new hotels, including home-stays, are mushrooming. There has been a 700 per cent increase in foreign tourists too, which now number over 50,000. 

With tourism, the sale of handicrafts, carpets and shawls has increased manifold. New shops have emerged, old ones refurbished, malls — still a few — are thriving, and restaurants doing brisk business. I was delighted to see the houseboats on the Dal and Nagina lakes not lying forlorn and empty but largely occupied, and shikaras dotting the waters packed with selfie taking tourists. Tourism is largely concentrated in Srinagar, Gulmarg, Pahalgam and Sonamarg, but an attempt is being made to develop off-beat destinations, including those offering adventure tourism. 

From what I could gather, the apple sector is also seeing a new high. Kashmir exports around 18 metric tonnes of apples, and accounts for 75 per cent of India’s total apple production. For the first time last year, a box of 15 kilos of apples sold for between Rs 1,300 to Rs 1,600 as against an average of 700 to 800 rupees in previous years. 

The overall Kashmir economy grew by eight per cent post-Covid — higher than the national level. The Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) has doubled to over Rs 2.25 lakh crores, thereby increasing per capita incomes. Land prices have increased exponentially, and several infrastructure projects initiated. Many people I spoke to were particularly happy about the opening of the Srinagar-Jammu highway that has furthered integration and halved travel time between the two state capitals. The Kashmir willow, famous for making cricket bats, is also doing well, and people recalled the recent visit of Sachin Tendulkar where he proudly bought one.  

Has terrorism decreased? According to official figures, terrorist incidents have dropped to 44 in 2023 compared to 228 in 2012, the number of active terrorists has fallen to an all-time low of 31, and targeted attacks against civilians has decreased to 14 in 2023 as against 81 in 2022. However, stray terrorist acts are still a worry, especially in the Rajouri, Poonch and Kupwara sectors.

Is the ordinary Kashmir happier? Most said yes, because — especially with increased tourism — incomes have increased. Have Kashmiris accepted the abrogation of Article 370? The response is difficult to gauge, but several people told me that this is more an issue with politicians, less with the common person. Do Kashmiris still want ‘azaadi’?  Most people said no. The answer of one was that Pakistan cannot provide food to its own people, how will it take care of us?  Many are also aware of the deplorable state of affairs in POK. 

One pervasive issue is that of unemployment. For one vacancy in the armed or paramilitary forces, there are lakhs of applications. The more educated have no jobs. Kashmir has seen little or no investment in industry, faces shrinking government jobs, and prolonged power-cuts.  Even Srinagar often faces power-cuts of hours each day, and the situation is much worse elsewhere. This also affects the tourism industry, since only large hotels can run on generators. The government needs to urgently tackle these issues. I also sensed a subterranean anger against Kashmiri politicians, who, many said, have only feathered their own nests, and perpetuated family fiefdoms. There is unhappiness too with the bifurcation of the state, and the prolonged delay in holding democratic state elections.

The greatest resentment is against the perceived policy of the BJP against Muslims. People are aware that the Narendra Modi government has not a single Muslim, either in the Cabinet or in Parliament. If the Prime Minister (PM) himself insinuates that Muslims are “infiltrators”, you cannot expect the Muslims in Kashmir — or for that matter anywhere in India — to feel an integral part of the country — as they, indeed, are. While there are fringe extremists on both sides of the religious spectrum, when senior ruling party leaders make incendiary statements against Muslims, or condone and overlook openly communal statements and events targeting them, it is bound to impact the sense of inclusion of India’s only Muslim majority state.  Such a policy also provides a convenient propaganda handle to Pakistan, and reenergises the sleeper terrorist units it has sponsored within India. If only PM Modi had actually followed his initial slogan of Sabka Saath and Sabka Vishwas, he would have been seen as a statesman, and not just a successful political leader. But since he has come to power, the policy of minority exclusion has only gathered more divisive momentum. This can be clearly seen in the speeches being made in this round of national elections, where the PM’s narrative has almost completely congealed into Hindu-Muslim venom. Whether we accept it or not, to make Kashmir not only physically but emotionally a part of India, such a milieu is a big impediment. Especially now, when increased prosperity and normalcy are helping in healing the wounds of history in Kashmir.