Monideepa Banerjie | Dummies' to help Hasina in BNP-mukt Jan. 7 polls?

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the Mahasamund constituency in Chhattisgarh had grabbed headlines because the BJP candidate there, Chandu Lal Sahu, had 10 other namesakes contesting the poll from the same seat, deployed by a rival to confuse the voter and cut into the BJP vote. Ajit Jogi was the Congress candidate at Mahasamund in that election. We don’t know whether the copycat Sahus were his handiwork. But the strategy almost worked. Jogi lost the election by the skin of his teeth -- just 1,217 votes.

The 10 namesakes were what we in Indian electoral jargon describe as “dummies”, who are used all the time across the country as a strategic sideshow in our polls, fielded by candidates with the intention of misleading voters and hurting opponents.

But that definition is being rewritten as we speak. Because about 1,000 km east of Mahasamund, in neighbouring Bangladesh, the national general election of January 7, 2024 is turning dummy candidates from being electoral adjuncts into the mainstream. Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina has decreed that no Awami League candidate should win the election uncontested; if there is no Opposition candidate, then the Awami League candidate must ensure there is a dummy candidate and defeat him or her in the vote in order to be a legitimate winner.

In short, dummy candidates seem to be getting deployed to lend legitimacy to an election that has come under a cloud because the main Opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has declared a boycott of the poll. The BNP wanted the polls held under a neutral government. The Awami League said this would be unconstitutional.

But the BNP’s boycott has put the ruling Awami League under pressure, especially since the United States has started scanning how the elections in this China-friendly country are being conducted. Yes, that is easily the most important reason for US interest in Bangladesh: Dhaka’s proximity to Beijing and the latter’s enormous investments in that country.

The Awami League’s strategy to deflect the American glare appears to be to deploy dummies so that the polls seem to be vigorously contested, even if it really turns into an intra-party affair.

Some figures that may help understand the situation. The Bangladesh Jatiya Sansad, or Parliament, has 300 seats. The country has 44 registered parties. Fifteen of those parties make up the Jatiya Oikya Front, headed by the BNP under former Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia, currently under house arrest. This front is boycotting the polls as it did in 2014. So, the number of parties fighting the elections is around 30. Of those, 14 parties form the ruling Awami League-led Grand Alliance.

According to data in The Dhaka Tribune newspaper, attributed to the Bangladesh Election Commission, of the 2,741 nominations filed, 298 are by the Awami League, 747 by Independents, the rest by other parties including Jatiya Party, the Trinamool BNP (that has broken away from the BNP), the Bangladesh Nationalist Movement, the Kalyan Party and so on. The final number of candidates contesting the January 7 polls will emerge only after December 17, the last date for withdrawal of nominations.

The Awami League may have filed 298 nominations, but the number of party members who had aspired to a ticket was a mammoth 3,369. The nominations left more than 3,000 party members disappointed, among them 71 sitting MPs. So, when Sheikh Hasina encouraged dummy candidates, there was a stampede. Of the 747 Independents, 440 are reported to be Awami League members. Around 30 of them are former Awami League MPs.

The dummies are, however, are supposed to be just that, dummies, and not rebel candidates.

All Awami League members who have filed nominations as dummies must reportedly have the party’s blessings. This is leading to some heartburn. Some dummy Awami League candidates have being quoted in the local media saying they are not fighting the polls to lose.

While dummies have to have the blessings of the Awami League, there are other Independents who are not associated with the ruling party. Reports suggest that many such Independents were persuaded to file nominations by coercive intelligence agencies to fluff up the numbers.

What if a large number of Independents and/or dummies are elected? London-based political analyst Kamal Ahmed writes: “The strategy could backfire if an unusually large number of Independents are elected. It could allow disgruntled allies and party rebels to gang up and form a powerful bloc, causing a larger split in the ruling alliance.”

But the Awami League doesn’t appear worried about such consequences. Its focus is to pull off an election that looks hard fought. Bangladesh knows that the world is watching.

THE WORLD IS WATCHING

Bangladesh has been under the scanner ever since Sheikh Hasina came to power in 2009 in an election held under a neutral government. She removed that same neutral government provision from the Constitution in 2011. That resulted in the Opposition boycotting the next general election in 2014. In 2018, the BNP participated but widespread reports of rigging on the night before polling day cast a deep shadow on the results.

Since 2018, Dhaka’s proximity to Beijing as well as to Moscow has grown, the last one on clear display during the Ukraine stand-off. It was something that made the US uncomfortable and resulted in its new Visa Policy to Promote Democratic Elections in Bangladesh in May, denying visas to officials suspected of scuttling free polls in the country, and to members of their families too.

Sheikh Hasina accused the US of meddling in its internal affairs. China and Russia backed Sheikh Hasina. India kept a low profile in this debate till it had to take a position. In the November 2+2 meetings with the United States in New Delhi, Bangladesh was discussed but not mentioned in the joint statement signalling, experts say, a difference of opinion.

After the meeting, at a press conference, foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra, however, spelt out India’s position. “The election in Bangladesh is their internal matter, and it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide their future. As a close friend and partner of Bangladesh, we respect the domestic process there and will continue to support the country’s vision of a stable, peaceful, and progressive nation.”

For India, stability in the neighbourhood and, in the face of US pressure, a government that has kept its word and cracked down on insurgency and fundamentalism clearly won the day. India will be watching the January 7 polls and the election results very closely. Dummies or not.