Shikha Mukerjee | Will MPs' suspensions jolt INDIA into anti-BJP unity?

The make-or-break moment unexpectedly presented itself to the INDIA collective days before the scheduled meeting of 28 political parties earlier this week, on December 19. The smoke bombs released by two intruders were a dramatic breach of security in the Lok Sabha; what followed was equally theatrical.

Altogether 146 Members of Parliament from the INDIA Opposition were punished with suspension for demanding a statement and protesting about the absence of home minister Amit Shah in a peeved and petulant reaction by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party majority.

Effectively emptying Parliament of all critics had the unintended consequence of transforming the hypothetical imperative of an Opposition alliance into a categorical imperative for the Congress and the regional and smaller parties to take on the BJP in the 2024 general election. The message of the suspensions was spelt out by the BJP, the empty seats would be filled with its cadres in 2024, fulfilling the vision of its leader of “One Nation, One Party”. The compulsion to work together for all Opposition parties has become urgent so that the loosely strung collective transforms into a battle-ready combat force.

The chronically fractious parties in the Opposition are victims of an even worse problem -- attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The solidarity evident in the protests, including the march to New Delhi’s Vijay Chowk led by Mallikarjun Kharge, can vaporise once the allies head back to their home turfs, wrecking the strategy of building a firm coalition to fight collectively against the BJP in 2024. Should the allies squander the new- found synergy created by the punitive suspensions by relapsing into old habits of hostility and mistrust, it would be suicidal.

INDIA as an alliance has two problems. The Congress and its internal factional frictions; and the regional parties that have multiple audiences and what is said in formal exchanges in New Delhi undergoes a metamorphosis on home turf. The Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav and the Janata Dal (United)’s Nitish Kumar sound gung-ho about the INDIA collective fighting together in New Delhi. They sound different when they get back to their bases. Proxies and provocateurs from within the regional parties with grudges and axes get to work, sowing dissension and igniting discord.

The Congress factions and frictions cost the party in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The failure to reach seat-sharing arrangements with INDIA partners in these three states helped the BJP to suck up the votes the regional and smaller parties haemorrhaged. By replacing Kamal Nath with Jitu Patwari, Mr Kharge has acted fast, but too late to save the situation.

By proposing Mr Kharge’s name as a potential Prime Minister and the natural choice as convenor of the INDIA collective, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee made a pre-emptive strike to contain the slacking off inevitable after the first shock pulled the Opposition parties together. The Congress is a past master at procrastination. It is also filled with false pride, giving itself an inflated sense of self-importance.

It will be Mr Kharge’s task, if the Congress confirms his name as the convenor and lead face of the INDIA collective fight, to ensure that his party engages with its former competitors in a spirit of cooperation to achieve the objective of fighting hard to defeat or diminish the BJP’s brute majority. If he and the Congress fail, the role of the Opposition in Parliament and politics would dwindle to a token presence that checks all the boxes prescribed for a functioning democracy.

The logic of Mamata Banerjee’s intervention, which followed her consultations with Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena and Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party and probably others off camera, is easily understood. Parties of the INDIA collective have been pushed together by the BJP’s offensive in Parliament and the time was right to end the interminable consultations and get down to brass tacks, like seat sharing and a nationwide campaign to launch INDIA as the alternative.

The push to name Mr Kharge worked. It delivered a message to the BJP, diverted the political discourse away from the dangerous narrative of there is no alternative to Narendra Modi. Having named Mr Kharge as the challenger, the message also said he cannot be dismissed as a privileged scion of a political dynasty. How the man of the masses, by caste a Dalit and by faith a Congressman, performs or is allowed to perform by his own party remains to be seen.

If the INDIA collective aspires to win, it is essential that the states outside the BJP fold deliver in 2024, which means the Congress has to work the hardest because it will contest the maximum number of seats. There are inherent difficulties of resolving seat spats. Mr Kharge has listed Punjab and Delhi as problem states; he has also named Karnataka, Kerala, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh as less contentious locations. Like Barkis in David Copperfield, Mamata Banerjee says she is willing to join forces with the Congress and her avowed enemy, the CPI(M)-led Left Front.

Mr Kharge, groomed in the Congress culture of consensus building, is a natural for the job of convenor of the INDIA collective and the Congress needs to make sure it happens. It is Mr Kharge’s advantage that he embodies the North-South difference; below the Vindhyas is BJP-mukt Bharat; the Gangetic Plain and the Doaba are mostly saffron with patches in other colours, in Bihar, in Punjab and in Delhi.

By naming a National Alliance Committee and holding a Congress Working Committee meeting in sync with the INDIA collective discussions, the Congress seems more business-like about getting started for the 2024 test. A Bharat Jodo Yatra 2.0 would be an expensive distraction for the cash-strapped party.

The focus in the limited time left before the general election is called is to present INDIA as the alternative and capture the popular imagination by appearing trustworthy. The effort could be useful in mobilising voter support essential to make the seat sharing idea electorally successful.

Coalitions of competing parties with sharp ideological differences and histories of hostility have been successful, the best example being the 34-year-Left Front in West Bengal led by Jyoti Basu and his successor Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee. The Left Front survives even after its devastating defeat by Mamata Banerjee. The National Democratic Alliance has endured. On-off alliances have been less successful.

Forging an alliance is difficult. Mr Kharge is among the country’s seniormost politicians. The question is: can he work like a leader of a complicated coalition that keeps pulling in different directions?