Indranil Banerjie | As Europe swings right, extremism is on the rise

Europe is creaking at every joint. The Continent, racked by farmers’ protests, shuttering industries, fractious political rallies, geopolitical strains, surging illegal immigration and growing militarisation, is witnessing a historic shift to the political right. The continental ship is pitching and yawing, threatening to dislodge established leaderships and entrenched parties.

The extent of the disequilibrium was evident in the remarkable success of right-wing parties in the European Parliament elections held between June 6 and 9 this year. Although Europe’s centre-right parties which are represented by the European People’s Party (EPP) group have retained control of the EU’s 720-seat Parliament for now, securing 189 seats, and together with left liberal sections will continue to shape European policies for the next five years, right-wing politics is the new force across the Continent.

In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni got a shot in the arm with her arch-conservative Fratelli d’Italia (or Brothers of Italy) group winning the greatest vote share. France was shocked by the surge of ultra right-wing Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (or National Rally), which doubled its vote count and secured 31 out of France’s 81 seats in the European Parliament. An unsettled French President Emmanuel Macron immediately announced snap legislative elections in a bid to contain the potential risks of any further rise in Ms Le Pen’s support.

Germany too saw the rise of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD), which came second after the Social Democrats led by current Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Rightists gained in Spain (Vox Party), Austria (Freedom Party) and in Hungary, Fidesz led by current President Viktor Orban stayed ahead, gaining vote share.

While the far right is unlikely to unite in the near future given its rivalries, it will compel Europe’s leaders to address the growing dissonance between government policies and popular concerns. Political observers believe this shift reflects rising disaffection, particularly amongst the youth. A Reuters report observed: “Young voters, traditionally perceived to be more left-wing, drove the wave of support for environmental parties at the last EU election in 2019… But following the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war and the cost of living crisis, many shifted their support this year towards the far-right populist parties that tapped into their concerns, fuelling their overall rise in the June 6-9 European Parliament polls.”

The core problems are economic, specifically Europe’s declining industrial competitiveness, falling real wages, high inflation, overstretched welfare systems, growing protectionism, skyrocketing national indebtedness and geopolitical rifts.

The aggregate of problems is reflected in the dramatic drop in the EU’s GDP growth rate: down from a post-Covid high of six per cent in 2021 to 3.4 per cent in 2022 and a mere 0.5 per cent in 2023 (Eurostat figures). According to some estimates, the 27-member European Union is now in the throes of a recession with major economies like Germany and Sweden actually registering negative growth. The outlook for 2024 is not vastly better, with first quarter growth at a paltry 0.3 per cent and an annual forecast of just one per cent or less.

Germany, which is the continent’s largest economy, has no money to meet farmers’ demands or even repair the famous autobahn, large parts of which are deteriorating.

Italy’s statistics bureau reported that poverty was rising and that 5.75 million Italians, or 9.8 per cent of the population, are living in “absolute poverty”.

Much that Europe’s leaders are doing today are only exacerbating the situation. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, European powers have kept enlarging their sphere of military-political influence. The imminent absorption of Ukraine into Nato was the proximate cause for the war with Russia. However, sending tens of billions of euros to Kyiv siphons money away from domestic requirements.

Not surprisingly, many European governments have been spending money like drunken sailors. Alarms are being set off. The EU executive arm, the enforcer of EU laws, have proposed disciplinary action against France, Belgium, Italy, Hungary, Malta, Poland and Slovakia for running budget deficits in excess of EU limits. These measures are expected to come into effect from November this year.

At the same time, by slamming shut the gates to Russian oil and gas, Europe’s leaders have triggered a huge surge in domestic energy prices as now pricier hydrocarbons have to be sourced from the Middle East and the United States.

Soaring energy costs are reported to have closed hundreds of small businesses and contributed to making European manufacturing uncompetitive.

The European leadership is in no mood to halt the war in Ukraine. Long inactive production lines in its arms factories are once again being cranked up; France is threatening to send troops against Russia, other nations are pulling out every spare piece of military hardware to equip Ukraine; military experts and trainers from various countries are assisting the war effort against Russia; and a collective European leadership is threatening all countries in the world that are aiding Moscow.

Even China is in Europe’s crosshairs. The recent G-7 meeting warned Beijing against aiding the Russian war effort. China responded by calling the G-7 end-of-summit statement as “full of arrogance, prejudice and lies”. But that is not the end of it. Last week, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said there was an “ongoing conversation” about possible sanctions against China.

On top of this, the EU is cracking down on cheap Chinese imports. The recent decision to slap a whopping 38.1 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicle exports prompted a furious reaction from Beijing, which threatened to retaliate if the proposed decision was not rescinded. Clearly, trade and geopolitical differences between China and Europe will only exacerbate, eventually damaging both sides.

The price for the European leadership’s decisions is being paid not by Europe’s rich and powerful but by its ordinary citizens, especially the working class. The result is a growing distance between European citizens and their powerful government leaders, who would like to believe in their infallibility.

Jacques Delors, one of the founding figures of the European Union, had warned decades ago of the “weakening of democracy within each of our countries. This weakening is worsened by the widening distance between the governed and their governments… This weakening causes the dangerous emergence of new extremist parties”. His words are proving to be prophetic.