Shikha Mukerjee | How the BJP has to fight harder to remain on top

A spectre is chasing the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is reflected in a spate of instructions to the state party units to get their acts together, followed by the assertion that the party is never complacent but always fighting fit, especially so, as a series of state elections fall due in 2022, including the crucial Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls.

The organisational directive from the top is an acknowledgement that election battles in the states will decide the fate of the 2024 general election and Narendra Modi’s political future. State by state, the voters will deliver a verdict in 2022 and 2023 on the performance of the Modi Sarkar and the BJP, if it is the ruling party and even if it is not. It is a tacit admission that the party has suffered losses and cannot afford to lose any more.

The weight of being India’s dominant political force is beginning to impress itself on the BJP. It is a reversal of the style in which the Narendra Modi government has so far conducted its relations with the states, organisations representing large sections of voters like farmers, organisations speaking for specific communities on issues like personal law, which was high handed, on the one hand, and disrespectful of local and sectional sensitivities, on the other. It seems to have dawned on the BJP and Mr Modi rather belatedly that riding roughshod over local and community sentiments can be politically risky.

Even the 11 Lok Sabha seats from the seven states in the Northeast plus the 14 Lok Sabha seats from Assam have begun to matter for the BJP. The cave-in by the Modi government to demands from Nagaland, backed up by a similar demand from Meghalaya over withdrawing the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act in the Northeast, by setting up a committee to consider its repeal, after brushing aside past appeals from Manipur that the armed forces were misusing and abusing the law, is yet another instance of succumbing to pressures from the states.

The BJP may not be walking on eggshells as yet, but it is certainly showing signs of being wary of the regional parties in opposition in the states. Till now, the fractured and numerically small Opposition in Parliament had been disdainfully dismissed by the Modi Sarkar backed by its numerical strength in the Lok Sabha. Savaging regional and smaller parties as dynastic and a threat to democracy, Mr Modi said that “problems arise when the same family, generation after generation” controls the party and organisation. It pointed to his acknowledgment that these regional parties are worthy political foes.

The virulence of the personal attacks on Akhilesh Yadav by BJP leaders, “full of Jinnah mentality” (whatever that means) “perverted mentality”, or even “professional butcher” (kasaijivi) is revealing. It implies that the BJP is uneasy about the party’s popularity and the strength of the Samajwadi Party as the principal party in opposition in the forthcoming UP elections. The style of the attack on Akhilesh Yadav is similar to the style of the attack the BJP, led by Mr Modi and Amit Shah, unleashed on Mamata Banerjee in the West Bengal polls, where it was badly mauled.

The calculated efforts to reduce risk by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is obvious from the speed with which it reacted to limit the damage after the land scam in and around Ayodhya surfaced in which persons close to the party and RSS affiliates are involved. The reaction time to the land scam issue is in stark contrast to the BJP’s stubborn refusal to take any action against Ajay Mishra “Teni”, Union minister of state for home, even though the Special Investigation Team report said that the mowing down and killing of farmers in Lakhimpur Kheri, for which his son is in jail, was a “planned conspiracy” and a “premeditated act”. Instead, Mr Mishra seems to have dropped out of sight and the Modi Sarkar is keeping him tucked away, which implies that he is politically embarrassing.

This style is noticeably different from the BJP’s earlier brutal disregard of public sentiments. The Prime Minister rewarded Anurag Thakur of “desh ke gaddaron ko, goli maro saalon ko” (shoot the traitors) fame, during the protests by mostly Muslim women over the Citizenship Amendment Act, by elevating him to minister for information and broadcasting and sports and youth affairs from minister of state.

The first and blinding sign of a BJP reinventing itself, clearly under the persistent negative pressure of public opinion that it failed to manipulate despite its best efforts, including interventions by its most popular icon, Narendra Modi, was the cave-in on repealing the three farm laws, after an almost year-long protest movement. Since then, the BJP has tried to, though not convincingly, project itself as a party that responds to opposition and public demands or protests. Its lack of sincerity is obvious from the arrogance of its actions in rejecting the Opposition’s demand for a debate in Parliament when the legislation repealing the farm laws was passed.

Regional politics and the parties that represent regional aspirations and reflect local culture and social dynamics give lie to the BJP’s narrative of homogenous Hindutva. The resistance by regional parties to the BJP’s hegemonic design and its ambitions of “One Party-One Nation” reflected in its marketing of development as a by-product of the “Double-Engine Sarkar”, with Mr Modi at the Centre and a puppet in the states is now compelling the party to re-examine its playbook. By asserting that it is never complacent, the BJP is admitting that there are problems within the organisation.

There have been too many rejigs in recent weeks, from the expansion of the Modi Cabinet with increased state, OBC as well as SC/ST additions, new chief ministers, state Cabinet expansions, the most significant being in UP, state party leaders and their managers in New Delhi, that point to organisational and political failings that require rectification. This is not to argue that the BJP is vulnerable in any way, as yet. It is still India’s largest and strongest party.

Compelled politically to make concessions to local sentiments and large sections of formidably well-organised and cohesive voters does not mean that the BJP’s strategy of centrally-controlled and micro-managed polls has changed. Its recent directives and moves point to a heightened state of alert. The BJP is aware that it will have to fight much harder than in the past to retain its position as the dominant party in Indian politics.