In 2018, expect LoC to get even more active

The Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir is just one domain of conflict between India and Pakistan but the degree of tactical expertise required to remain in a dominant position needs to be extremely high. Deployed eyeball to eyeball with the adversary, there are some areas where they are separated by just a kilometer. The environment offers ample scope to test each other’s nerves, tactical skills and stamina. Not for nothing was this called one of the most dangerous places on earth. Strategically, the LoC offers the maximum scope to Pakistan’s “deep state” for its messaging. But why does it need to do so? It must be understood Pakistan’s strategic aim is to keep a state of turbulence in J&K and thereby exploit India’s religious faultlines. Much depends on the state of affairs in the two countries.

Currently, Pakistan is witnessing a political vacuum with all its mainstream parties in disarray. None has a real national presence, with the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the party in power, in hara-kiri mode. This has allowed radical elements to make a bid for political space. In recent months, Pakistan has seen a lockdown of its capital, Islamabad, by a new element, Tehreek-e-Labayak Ya Rasool Allah (TeL), demanding death sentences for PML(N) ministers and the complete dismissal of Parliament for not adhering to the finality of the Prophet in the affirmation for election. Hafiz Saeed, the maverick leader of Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and Jamaat-ud-Dawa, founded the Milli Muslim League (MML), sensing a chance at political credibility and a potential political future. This has the backing of personalities like former President Pervez Musharraf, who too surprisingly appears to have political ambitions. Garnering political space gets a boost from the “deep state” if some spectacular actions are seen in Kashmir or anywhere else in India, which can signal how much India’s internal security is under Pakistani calibration. However, 2017 has proven to be a year in which the Indian security forces led by the Army have regained the space lost in 2016 due to the anger which spilled into the streets of Kashmir after the killing of local terrorist leader Burhan Wani. It’s not easy for the “deep state” to strike at will, although plans are undoubtedly afoot. As an interim measure, there is always the LoC. An opportunity does exist to carry out a tactical action with a larger strategic impact. The domination of the LoC exchanges of fire assaults by the Indian Army has also rankled the “deep state”.

This time, however, a deeper strategy appears to have motivated the deplorable action at Keri in the LoC’s Rajouri sector. A Pakistani border action team (BAT) comprising Pakistani regulars and terrorists carried out a shallow infiltration on December 22 and ambushed an Indian Army patrol led by an officer of 2 Sikh (Royal), a premier infantry unit, killing an officer and three jawans. There appears to be a deep-set conspiracy and strategy that began from the moment Pakistan gave permission for the family of Kulbhushan Jadhav, the former Indian naval officer who Pakistan alleges is an Indian spy and is in its custody, to visit him in Pakistan. A leak of a report about the brief given by Pakistan Army chief Gen. Qamar Bajwa to the Pakistan Senate appears to have been made deliberately. This report carried an apparent advisory from the Pakistan Army chief to the political community that the Army was willing to back peace initiatives with India. It appears to have been made to lull India into complacency alongside the gesture to permit Kulbhushan Jadhav’s family to meet the condemned prisoner. The trans-LoC operation, infliction of casualties on the Indian Army and the subsequent humiliation of Jadhav’s mother and wife with selective media harassment — all this appears to have been choreographed with the larger intent of humiliating India and establishing a psychological ascendancy with a message of Pakistani domination of the strategic space in India-Pakistan relations.

As in the past, Pakistan masterfully initiated its strategy and conspiracy but didn’t think it through. The terminal end of nefarious strategies which cross the Pakistani mind is never apparent to its “deep state” planners. Two things went awry. One, the Indian Army retaliated swiftly, keeping the response limited to the tactical level. A small Indian Army element crossed the LoC on December 25 and laid mines and IEDs at will near Rakh Chikri post of Poonch, detonating these remotely and engaging Pakistani troops as they patrolled the area. Four fatal Pakistan Army casualties, including an officer, underscored India’s will to demonstrate that it wouldn’t leave a Pakistani criminal act at the LoC unpunished. The second action, still underway, is the political and diplomatic row India was able to generate over the humiliation of Jadhav’s family. The last word has yet to be heard on this even as squirming Pakistani television commentators tried to deflect acute criticism. India should do much more to paint Pakistan into a corner and lay low its already abysmal international image.

All this clearly indicates what the state of affairs in 2018 will be. Pakistan’s strategic confidence appears higher than its internal situation indicates. The deterioration of Sino-Indian relations in 2017 and the hype about the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is giving it an out of proportion perception of its own strategic strength and a corresponding perception of India’s apparent weakness. That is why in 2018 India cannot afford to be reactive any longer. The full capacity of its yet-untested below-the-radar diplomacy, supplemented by its proxy reach and capped by its offensive LoC capability, must form the cornerstone of its strategy. Sometimes it’s good to take off the gloves and use bare fists against a wily, irrational and unethical foe. At the same time, India must secure itself fully against Pakistan’s inevitable subterfuge and proxy capability. Internal security supplemented by high intelligence capability and most of all political prudence to take all parties along in national security is now an imperative.