Hasina can ignore her rivals at her own peril

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed’s remarkable re-election for an unprecedented third consecutive term after 10 years in power may bring cheer to her camp as she sets course for a fresh term. But a word of caution as New Delhi sends a congratulatory message to a leader who is central to its “Neighbourhood First” policy. After the landslide win, where the Hasina-led Awami League won 288 out of 300 seats, leaving the Jatiya Okiya Front, the new Opposition front, floundering with just seven, Hasina’s first battle will be for credibility.

She must convince all, friends and critics alike, that this sweeping victory is above board, as her crushing return feeds into the Opposition’s rising chorus that the polls were farcical and rigged, giving renewed impetus to calls for a repoll. The Election Commission has rejected that call, and it must be said that alongside reports of stuffed ballot boxes and voter intimidation were reports in the Bangladeshi media of cash and petrol bombs distributed by the Opposition hours before the polls closed.

But Hasina, and India, would do well to see the red flags ahead. The ailing Opposition leader and former PM Begum Khaleda Zia, 74, in prison on corruption charges, with her son Tarique in exile in London, may seem like a spent force. But unlike 2014, when Begum Khaleda’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party boycotted the polls, this time there was not just a change in tactics. The virulently anti-Indian, anti-minority BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami combine has an unlikely new fellow traveller in Kamal Hossain, a far more respected voice, who now speaks for the ranks of the disgruntled. The 81-year-old who crafted Bangladesh’s constitution, and stood for the forces of liberation alongside founding father Sheikh Mujibur Rehman, is the secular, liberal voice at the heart of the Opposition front, with the potential to hijack the very constituency that powered Hasina to victory.

Going forward, Mr Hossain has the potential to rally the forces of retaliation back to the streets and weaken democratic institutions, a scenario that holds serious ramifications for India. There are no guarantees that the “Naya Pakistan”, with which the Jamaat has strong links, will watch from the sidelines and not destabilise Delhi’s key ally in its vulnerable eastern flank.

Hasina ignores the internal challenge posed by the growing Islamist militancy, which she has cracked down on during her preceding tenure, at her peril. While the “Battle of the Begums” may be on the wane, given Ms Zia’s failing health and Sheikh Hasina’s grooming of a successor in her own son, the arrival of Mr Hossain as the voice of the Opposition is a factor that neither Dhaka, nor for that matter, Delhi, can ignore.

As one wag said, tongue firmly in cheek, Sheikh Hasina should have known better, and taken the sting out of the Opposition’s tail by allowing it to win more than just seven seats!