Can Oppn give BJP a jolt in Prez polls?

The ongoing effort to unite the Opposition parties for the presidential election due in July, for which Congress president Sonia Gandhi recently took the lead in line with the “historic necessity” of vanquishing the BJP so that it may not come to acquire monopoly over the entire state structure, is a reminder that in India the Opposition parties can join hands only when there is an immediate goal, and sometimes not even then.

This is the case when the ruling BJP has become a pole player, meaning it can be put down in the electoral arena only when the index of Opposition unity is high. In another era, when the Congress was the pole player, Opposition unity was achieved far more easily, and did not require an immediate electoral objective.

The reason was that the Congress had a network in every state and every regional party felt threatened by it. The BJP is not quite there yet, though it is now the dominant player. Only recently we saw the saffron party being defeated in the Goa election by the Congress (although unethically it did form the government) — that suggests the BJP is still vulnerable, although Prime Minister Narendra Modi is thought to be all-conquering.

This means the BJP cannot take it for granted that it will necessarily succeed in having its own Rashtrapati when President Pranab Mukherjee’s term ends on July 24, though it is true the saffron party has the best chance. The BJP can even try to divide the Opposition’s ranks in order to increase the distance between itself and the other parties combined in the electoral college tally. Indeed, as matters stand, the BJP seems to have a marginal edge.

But this is not something that can’t be neutralised if the Opposition forces stick together and are also able to attract parties like the AIADMK, Odisha’s BJD and Haryana’s INLD. And the Opposition’s prospects will look even better if it can snatch away the Shiv Sena, the BJP’s NDA ally, which in the last presidential poll had backed UPA candidate Pranab Mukherjee and not BJP candidate Purno A. Sangma.

It appears the chances of an Opposition combine could improve considerably if it can zero in on a presidential candidate who is not from the Congress. In that event it is entirely feasible that the Opposition parties can also elect a vice-president of their choice, trumping the BJP.

Can there be a consensus NDA-Opposition combine candidate for the presidency? That might be the ideal solution, and in that event the sitting President’s name suggests itself.

But in all likelihood that will be a long shot. After having captured the executive, the RSS and the BJP will be having their eyes on Rashtrapati Bhavan.