Conviction unlikely to impact Lalu much

The conviction of former Bihar chief minister and RJD founder-supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav by a special CBI court in Jharkhand on Saturday in the second of six cases relating to the so-called fodder scam will place Mr Yadav in jail for a time unless he gets bail, but it is unlikely to seriously impact his party’s status in Bihar as a leading political force, and one whose clout is dreaded the most by the BJP. The RJD is the largest presence in the Bihar Assembly.

Two years ago, it was the RJD, in collaboration with Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) and the Congress, that had evicted the BJP from power.

The BJP has got back into government by enticing chief minister Nitish Kumar to defect to its camp, leaving the RJD as the principal Opposition party.

The RJD’s impressive showing in the last Assembly election had come after Mr Yadav had been convicted in the first fodder case in 2013. He was sent to jail but secured bail after a few months. However, he is barred from contesting elections. These personal constraints will, of course, continue. The quantum of punishment this time around is to be announced by the court in January.

In the time between his conviction in the first and the second fodder-related case, the RJD supremo has placed both his sons in the state legislature and Tejaswi, the younger one, was Deputy CM until Mr Kumar broke the coalition arrangement with the RJD and the Congress and returned to being with the BJP-led NDA. The very young Tejaswi Yadav appears to have made a mark as a politician and is currently the leader of the Opposition in Bihar.

In recent times, the CBI has been going all-out to target Lalu Yadav and members of his family in new cases relating to awarding contracts for favours when he was railways minister in the UPA government. Tejaswi is also being sought to be roped into this lot of cases, although he was a school-going boy when his father was a UPA minister.

Since the younger Mr Yadav has made a positive impression in Bihar, the attempt to involve him in corruption-related cases is apt to be seen as political vendetta by the powers-that-be. This is likely to mean that his father’s cause as a politician is unlikely to take a beating in Bihar.

If the senior Mr Yadav remains on bail, he will continue to lead the anti-BJP politics in the state in his own unmatched style that strikes a chord with the public. Should he go behind bars, public sympathy for his son and the RJD may only be enhanced at a time when fingers have begun to be pointed at CM Kumar’s government for favouring certain entrepreneurs for a consideration. The grapple in Bihar is between Mr Yadav’s tainted term in government and his secular politician image.