Few bright spots as Modi govt turns 4

From great expectations and political highs to tough times laced with uncertainty for the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may rue as he reflects on the fourth anniversary of his government today.

With the massive Lok Sabha win of 2014 in the background, the PM perhaps thought he could get away with anything. It was in that reckless moment of unbridled complacency that he announced the demonetisation to score a populist political point — that he would unearth black money and disinherit the rich, without bothering with working out the possible economic consequences.

With demonetisation, the economy reeled for two years and was rendered vulnerable to pressures of every kind. But the BJP still won massively in Uttar Pradesh. It could consolidate politically neglected sections of OBCs primarily as the downside of demonetisation hadn’t yet manifested itself, and communal propaganda reached high decibels.

When the ill-effects of demonetisation became apparent, bad times set in for the ruling party. The allies became restive. The TDP finally broke away formally. The Shiv Sena and Akali Dal have also felt the impact of an overbearing BJP, and have chafed.

Before long, with bad economic policies discouraging investment, pulling down employment, and jacking up prices on a sustained basis, elections began to throw up unhelpful results for the BJP. Gujarat was a nail-biting finish, and was won with the greatest difficulty, despite being the home turf of Mr Modi and BJP president Amit Shah.

Crucial byelections, including on the home turf of ace communalist UP CM Yogi Adityanath, were lost badly. Majority community communalism as a ploy to consolidate votes by demonising the minorities — all those beef killings, “love jihad”, attacks on churches, and surgical strike propaganda — is now likely to pay a smaller dividend.

In Karnataka, the Congress government couldn’t resist anti-incumbency, but the BJP couldn’t capitalise. It tried outright corruption to break other parties but failed, although the governor was openly helpful. The much-hyped Modi magic came into question.

The Narendra Modi government’s fourth anniversary — ushered in with fanfare as an antidote to sluggishness, the answer to corruption, and the inauguration of a “strong” leader to make India march with seven-league boots — will be remembered for the gathering efforts to band together the once-fractious Opposition in which the BJP’s nemesis, Congress, has critical role, although some questions remain for the future.

In these four years, the economy has been thoroughly mismanaged. Foreign policy execution has betrayed innocence of its most basic postulates, specially in relation to difficult neighbours like China and Pakistan, weak neighbours like the Maldives and Nepal, and the US and Russia. An insurgency is rocking Kashmir. Institutions like Parliament, RBI and the Supreme Court have been sought to be subverted. The bright spots, if any, are hard to find.