4th round polling flat, no sign of a wave yet

In the fourth phase of voting for 72 Lok Sabha seats in nine states on Monday, the provisional polling figures shortly before closing time appeared well below the figures in the first three rounds of elections, in which a little over 60 per cent of the electorate exercised their franchise. This cannot be music to the ears of the BJP, which in 2014 had won 45 of these seats, with its allies winning another 11, making a tally of 56 for the NDA. In laughable contrast, the Congress won a mere two of these constituencies five years ago. In 2009, on the other hand, the Congress bagged 29 of these seats while the BJP picked up only seven.

The moderate polling percentage so far suggests a flat election, rather than a voting pattern that could be defined as a “wave”. One of the country’s top psephologists, with an extensive and recurring media presence, who in the past five years was thought by many to lean in favour of the ruling side in his analysis, has said that so far there is no sign of a “Narendra Modi wave”.

According to this analysis, resting on past examples, for a wave phenomenon to exist, there should have been a five to eight per cent rise in voting numbers in relation to the previous outing (2014), and so far this is far from being the case. In later rounds of polling, the probability of either a “Modi wave” or an “anti-Modi wave” cannot be excluded. The significance of this analysis can be understood from the fact that in all states the BJP pitched only Prime Minister Narendra Modi, relegating candidates, its manifesto and other considerations firmly to the background. Mr Modi is himself frequently heard saying in campaign speeches that pressing the “lotus” button will “be straightaway be a vote for me”.

Evidently, he and his party counted on such a personalised campaign bearing dividends, but the poll percentages are still quite depressed. It is thought not unlikely that the final voting tally for this round will be even lower than the first three phases. It has been seen over time that BJP-RSS supporters go out to vote with considerable dynamism, and try to spread the enthusiasm in the areas of their work. This phenomenon has not been in evidence yet.

The BJP’s top guns have played the communal card, the terrorism card and the Pakistan card in the ongoing polls, steering well clear of the development card, the dominant motif of 2014. The Prime Minister himself has also tried the caste card, calling himself a person coming from among the extreme sections of the “backward caste” social grouping. This invited a riposte from regional Opposition leaders (though not the Congress). But the caste dimension while campaigning hasn’t caused a spike in the voting percentages.