US dumps ageing F-16s on India?

The news of the Tatas and Lockheed joining hands to build F-16s in India looks encouraging. The Indian and US companies signed an agreement during the ongoing Paris air show. It transpires that Lockheed would transfer its technology and manufacturing facilities from the United States to India. That must be music to the serving personnel of the Indian Air Force, as it faces a critical inventory shortage pertaining to its operational assets with successive (previous) Air Chiefs, after crying hoarse from rooftops, have gone home into post-retirement oblivion.

It is time to look into the genesis of the F-16, its development, the present and future market prospects for the “new” manufacturers in India. Begun as a prototype programme of General Dynamics F-16 for US Air Force’s lightweight fighter (LWF) in 1972, the first F-16A to enter operational service was delivered to the US Air Force’s 388th Tactical Fighter Wing (TFW) on January 6, 1979. This was followed by delivery to Belgian Air Force on January 26, 1979.

Understandably, the F-16 is a machine of formidable pedigree. After being prime and prize fighter aircraft of the tactical military division of General Dynamics for almost 21 years, on March 1, 1993, it had a change of ownership following the sale of General Dynamics to Lockheed, which went on to be known as Lockheed Martin. This happened owing to “reduced threat perception” as the demise of the Soviet Union resulted in military-industrial-complex overcapacity, which led to a fresh merger and acquisition  in the US. US military aviation was sized for the Cold War, but the Cold War was over.

More than 38 years have gone since the F-16 started its journey. What is the scenario now? According to Jane’s All the World’s Aircraft: In Service 2016-2017, a total of 4,588 F-16 of various types have been sold and are being used by 24 countries, including the US Air Force, Navy and Lockheed. However, the US-produced fighter aircraft appears to be in its last legs. After all, how many fighters of the West are in use after close to four decades, and with little possibility of a renewed sale boost? No wonder “1 Lockheed Boulevard, Fort Worth, Texas 76108” appears keen to “transfer the ageing F-16 production line from Texas to India”. The heyday of the F-16 is certainly over. That is understandable. If India was in the position where the US is now, surely New Delhi too would have done the same. After all, its arms bazar of military hardware fetches money worth billions and employment to thousands!

It may be argued that what initially started as F-16A and F-16-B in 1970s were constantly improved and upgraded, thereby enhancing the combat capability of the aircraft with changing times and increasingly challenging operational environment. Very true. The F-16 began with a single Pratt & Whitney F-100 turbofan engine of 25,000-pound static thrust and a maximum takoff weight of between 10.5 and 16.05 tonne (depending on configuration). Today the same craft has been upgraded with single “increased performance engine” (IPE) made by General Electric F-110 at 29,588 pounds after burning turbofan with a new version offering potential to increase the maximum augmented thrust rating to about 31,860 pound static thrust, thereby considerably increasing its armament and fuel payload, operational radius and maximum take-off weight.

That is all noteworthy and laudable. Nevertheless, questions remain for potential users and future producers and developers. There are at least 16 parameters of a fighter aircraft that together make the machine flight-worthy. These, briefly, are fuselage/airframe (design); flying control; structure; landing gear; power plant/engine; systems (environmental control system, etc.); avionics (communications); armament; dimensions (external); areas; weights and loadings; maximum takeoff weight; fuel capacity; payload; performance and radius of operation. One really hopes that what India thus far could not do with its state-owned and administered HAL, the new agreement between Lockheed and the Tatas will break with the past to make it a real “Made in India”.

Despite optimism, certain points need clarification and explanation on the future plan vis-à-vis Made in India F-16s and its potential marketability. It transpires that from the time of full-scale development of the F-16 in 1976 to 1995-1996, 3,964 aircraft were ordered by 18 countries from five continents of Asia, Africa, Europe, North America and South America. Thereafter, however, it dropped drastically. This means that while orders were received for only 624 aircraft in the past 20 years (between 1996 and 2016), the first 20 years (1976 to 1996) saw a sale of 3,964 aircraft. Can it therefore be referred to as the law of diminishing returns?

This leads us to the next question. What then is the future of the Indian-made F-16? Realistically speaking, it would simply not be possible for a brand new unit of a fighter aircraft to break even without an order of at least 200 aircraft in one go. And if one looks into the existing users of fighters across the world, it certainly is unlikely to give positive vibes. Why? Because, barring the US, which alone had planned-procurement of 2,230 aircraft, the other users do not inspire confidence owing to a variety of reasons. The entire F-16 fleet of European users Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, and Norway are at average 30 years old. And they are unlikely to go for either an upgrade or fresh purchase of F-16s. Portugal too has a 23-year vintage aircraft. Greece, Poland Turkey are the only three users which have a mixed fleet of old and not-too-old aircraft. In Asia, most of the F-16s which are being used by 11 Air Forces — of Bahrain, Indonesia, Iraq, Israel, South Korea, Oman, Pakistan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and UAE — are dealing with age-related “maintenance, repair and overhaul” problems. And there is little to show that they will place repeat orders for F-16s in the near future.

In this scenario, perhaps the only solution for the proposed “Made in India” F-16 is a bulk order from the Indian Air Force, which may attract other potential customers to relook at the aircraft. However, a hurdle remains: the F-16 did not pass the IAF test of qualitative requirement (QR) only a few years ago when six bidders (Russian MiG-35; Swedish Gripen; Eurofighter Typhoon; French Rafale and America’s Lockheed F-16 and Boeing F-18) were vying for India’s multi-role combat aircraft. Defence production and purchase in India is a landmine. All the more because India usually preferred foreign procurement to fully indigenous production.