A risky BJP strategy

Judging by the forays of Narendra Modi, the Bharatiya Janata Party is still honing its message for the 2014 general election. The toss-up is between the Hindutva card and a broader theme of development and good governance beyond the perennial Congress-bashing that comes instinctively to the BJP and its leaders. Mr Modi seems to subscribe to the Oscar Wildean theory that nothing succeeds like excess in painting his Opposition black. Mr Modi’s indirect and belated expression of regret over the 2002 Gujarat pogrom created a new problem, the indelicate analogy of his grief over the death of a puppy hurt in a vehicle in which he was a mere passenger. He then went on to berate the habit of the Congress to wear the “burqa of secularism” instead of solving problems. The unstated message in both these allusions was the same: Muslims for him were the other. And the Mumbai unit of the BJP lost no time in capitalising on the analogy by plastering the city with outsized Modi posters repeating what he had told the Reuters news agency, “I am a Hindu nationalist”. The BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leadership seems to have decided that by presenting Mr Modi as its face for the 2014 election, it can write off almost all Muslim votes (the sacking of the vice-president of the Delhi unit of the BJP for his frank comments on Muslims’ antipathy to the Gujarat leader was but one recent instance). What the party is hoping for is the diversion of a greater share of Hindu votes to its candidate, particularly in the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh. Thus, the rebuilding of the Ram temple at Ayodhya will remain in the picture, but more as a backdrop than in the forefront. What will be upfront is Modi the good Hindu, the charioteer in the traditional rath yatra that takes place in Orissa every year, the temple goer, one who pays obeisance to shankaracharyas. Mr Modi has already signed up Baba Ramdev as his cheerleader. The Hindu theme will be the pervasive sub-text of the BJP’s election campaign. This seems to have been the crux of the result of Mr Modi’s discussions with the Sangh leadership in Nagpur. Indeed, the BJP has chosen a risky strategy of all or nothing. Its leadership is too shrewd to believe that it can return to power only on this issue. It cannot recreate the frenzy of the original rath yatra of L.K. Advani, instrumental in the party’s first march to power at the Centre, but every little hint of promoting the good Hindu as opposed to the secularists of the Congress and other parties will, it is hoped, strike a chord in Hindu hearts. It is, of course, striking that the only party it has retained in the original National Democratic Alliance, apart from the Akalis in Punjab, is the Mumbai-based Shiv Sena, although there is no doubt others will probably veer towards it if the party emerges with the largest number of Lok Sabha seats. The Congress and the non-BJP Opposition parties are, therefore, set the problem of how to counter this tendency of the main Opposition party and an aspirant to power of taking the political discourse in an unhealthy direction. At the tactical level, the Congress response needs to be better thought-out and coordinated. India is a diverse country in ethnicity and religion, and despite suggestions from some of the BJP’s own leaders that the national debate should not be reduced to secularism against communalism, the country’s electoral arithmetic is such that pandering to the majority will not lead to victory. The tragedy is that much as Muslims as other minorities might wish to vote out the Congress for its sins of omission and commission, the BJP playing the Hindutva card would leave them with little choice but to veer back to the party of Indian Independence. Few members of minority communities will buy the RSS’ definition of all Indians being Hindus. Therefore, it narrows down the choice for millions of the electorate. The BJP’s apparent strategy raises broader questions. Outside the frenzy created by the Ayodhya issue, no major political party has sought to question the secular basis of the Constitution. If the BJP were now to launch an outright offensive to take the country to a more sectarian direction, it would represent a new ball game. Thus far, despite frequent aberrations, no party has challenged the nature of the Indian polity. Mr Modi’s campaign would, therefore, represent a sea change in spelling out the basis of a self-proclaimed Hindu nationalist’s concept of what India should be. It is no secret that regional parties will hold the key to the future shape of Indian polity. While many of them are dreaming the dream of being the king, rather than king-makers — the illusion of a Third Front in whatever shape or form never dies — their contribution will be weightier in helping define the future philosophical shape of the country. The Akali Sikhs in Punjab have made up their minds to be with the BJP for hard-headed reasons because that is the only way they can remain in power in the state. Others will look at the electoral arithmetic in their states in deciding their policies and tactics. Unless the BJP in its Modi avatar gets overwhelming Hindu votes, which seems unlikely, the spread of the minorities will prove inimical to lofting the party to power. And here lies the dilemma for the party and its mentor, the RSS. The latter in particular, which is calling the shots, seems to have decided to sup with the devil, metaphorically speaking, to try another shot at power in Delhi, a goal that has twice eluded it after its singular six-year stint. In the process, the RSS has made the ultimate sacrifice of suborning the organisation to an individual who has given ample evidence of both his electoral success in Gujarat and his scorn for his parent organisation by doing exactly what he wants in governing his state.

The writer can be contacted at snihalsingh@gmail.com