Planet warms up as middle-class becomes more aspirational

The fifth assessment report of the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that the last three decades have been the warmest since scientists started keeping records since 1850 with carbon dioxide concentrations having increased 40 per cent since pre-industrial times. The effects of this are for everyone to see — a relentless heating up of the atmosphere and the oceans which will adversely impact the global water cycle. Glaciers will continue to melt and sea levels are expected to rise along coastal levels by 10 to 32 inches by the end of the century against the project levels of seven to 23 inches. What will the impact of this change, prepared by 259 climate scientists from 39 countries, mean for South Asia and specifically for India. The report gives both a mid-term projection (2045-2065) and long-term projections (2081-2100) for us though more details will be made available early next year. It warns that north and west India will face an increase in temperature while south India will face an increase in tropical nights. Maximum temperatures during the day are expected to increase between 4-5 degree C while the number of tropical nights (the number of 24-hour days above 20 degree C) are projected to increase from between 0 to 80 days largely in south India. The northern part of the sub-continent will also witness a rise in winter temperatures from 0.4 to 0.8 degree C between 2016-35 as compared to earlier figures and then face subsequent increases as well. Scientists at the Pune Institute of Tropical Meteorology, associated closely with the drafting of this report, warn that rising temperatures will have an impact on the monsoons. While overall, rainfall is expected to increase by 10 per cent between December to February and up to 50 per cent between September and November. The report states, “While monsoon winds are likely to weaken, monsoon precipitation is likely to intensify due to increase in atmospheric moisture. Monsoon onset dates are likely to become earlier or not to change much. Monsoon retreat dates will likely be delayed, resulting in the lengthening in the monsoon season in many regions.” Scientists warn that higher rainfall will not mean an extension of more rainy days. Rather, it will see an increase in extreme weather events as happened during the torrential rainfall that hit Uttarakhand in June 2013. Inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability will create problems in agriculture which will witness a decline of up to 25 per cent across South Asia. A loss of green cover will see an annual runoff that will be more than 40 per cent of the total rainfall. This is not good news for the farming community. All across South Asia, farmers have been crying hoarse about how changing climates have destroyed their livelihoods and their crops. Ghulam Mohammed Malikyar, heading the National Environmental Protection Agency of Afghanistan, decried how his country had lost 72 per cent of its forest cover and was witnessing a rapid melting of its glaciers. Embarrassed by its earlier faux paux giving a 2035 time-line for the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, the new report has confined itself to declaring that the melting of glaciers would impact 1.2 billion people in the region, including China. Apprehensive of the rapid rate of glacial melt, Dr David Molden of ICIMOD warned that the Himalaya’s 54,000 glaciers could create glacial lakes which would rupture their banks and destroy the surrounding infrastructure and agriculture. A scenario repeated in Uttarakhand and alluded too in this fifth UNFCC report. In all the four greenhouse gas emission scenarios worked out by these scientists, it has been found that at least a 1.5 degree C increase in the earth’s average temperature would occur by 2100. The report further holds carbon dioxide more responsible for global warming than methane and nitrous oxide thereby implying that India’s paddy fields and livestock populations cannot be blamed for these CO2 emissions. The report states that the total amount of carbon human beings emit must not exceed 800 gigatons but by 2011, 531 gigatons had already been emitted. “For the first time, IPCC has given a global budget for the total amount of carbon pollution,” said Sanjay Vashist, director of Climate Action Network, South Asia, an umbrella organisation covering 850 NGOs. Mr Vashist believes that polluters have already burnt half of this and without equitable allocation and concrete action by governments, the entire budget will be exhausted within 30 years. Scientists question how increasing urbanisation will handle future climate problems, especially since cities produce three quarters of greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption. With the global middle-class expected to triple by 2030, the question before governments and society at large is how to provide a proper lifestyle for these individuals and yet rein in climate change.