N Korea's deft sports diplomacy has severely limited America's options

North Korea’s well-crafted moves to practice sports diplomacy by participating in the ongoing PyeongChang Winter Olympics and the resulting thaw in inter-Korean relations have caught the United States and Japan on the wrong foot. The events on the Korean peninsula, since the beginning of this year, have also brought to the surface the differences in approach of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump in dealing with the ongoing nuclearisation of North Korea. While South Korea has been advocating talks with the North at any level without any preconditions, the hardline American policy is to initiate talks with Pyongyang only after it commits to stop nuclear and missile tests.

Since coming to power in 2011, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has avoided any direct confrontation with South Korea. During the rule of his father Kim Jong-il, tensions were high between the two Koreas, particularly after the sinking of the South Korean corvette “Cheonan” in March 2010, and the North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong island of South Korea in November the same year. Following the election of liberal President Moon Jae-in in 2017, North Koreans saw an opportunity to leverage the differences in the soft policy of President Moon and the uncompromising stance of the Trump administration towards the North’s nuclearisation and missile development programme. The North Korean official media conveyed that the targets of the North Korean arsenal were the US troops in South Korea, Japan and Guam and not their South Korean brothers.

The sports diplomacy can be traced back to April 1970 when, at the height of the Cultural Revolution, Chairman Mao Zedong had invited the US Table Tennis team to China. This overture eventually led to US President Richard Nixon’s historic visit to China in 1972. Also, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, North and South Korea participated as a joint team at the 1991 World Table Tennis Championship in Tokyo. In fact, the two Koreas have marched together in three Olympics since 2000.

In November last year, President Moon Jae-in extended an olive branch to the North during a two-month pause by the North in its missile tests, and called for North Korea’s participation in the Winter Olympics to be hosted by the South. North Korean response came in the New Year message of Kim Jong-un when he offered to open talks with South Korea for possible participation at the PeyongChang Olympics. President Moon quickly responded and the first round of talks to work out the arrangements was held on January 9 at the Panmunjom Truce Village. At these path-breaking talks, North Korea agreed to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics. The two sides agreed to restore the military hotline and hold further talks to defuse the military tension. Importantly, there was no discussion on the nuclear issue either at the three rounds of preparatory talks or later when the high-level North Korean delegation led by the nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam was in PyeongChang from February 8-10.

South Korea has been engaging in delicate negotiations with the US to bring it on board for the opening of direct contacts between the two Koreas where the agenda and the pace is set by the North. This demonstrates the success of Mr Jong-un in controlling the events as well as the direction of its relations with the South. In a letter to President Moon hand-delivered by his sister, Mr Jong-un offered a bilateral summit in Pyongyang, a tantalising bait which would ensure President Moon’s place in Korean history.

The US was clearly caught off-guard. On his way back from PyeongChang, US vice-president Mike Pence told reporters that he and President Moon had agreed on the terms for future engagement with North Korea — first by South Korea and then with the United States. Vice-president Pence called this policy “maximum pressure and engagement at the same time”. President Moon reportedly assured that, unlike in the past, South Korea will not offer any economic or diplomatic benefits to the North just for talking. These would be on the table only if the North takes concrete steps towards de-nuclearisation. The Trump administration’s acceptance of the concept of starting talks without any preconditions shows a significant easing of its earlier hardline policy.

On February 17 this year, President Moon Jae-in said, “We are waiting for the ongoing dialogue between South and North Korea to lead to talks between the United States and the North and to the denuclearisation.” He also observed that it may be too early to discuss when and if he may hold a summit as proposed by Mr Jong-un. A recent opinion poll in South Korea revealed that six out of 10 South Koreans favoured holding an inter-Korean summit. Significantly, President Moon enjoys an approval rating of over 63 per cent, strengthening his hands.

The North Korean overtures to South Korea have two clear objectives. One is to drive a wedge between the US and South Korean strategic perceptions, an objective pursued in tandem with China and Russia. And the second is to present a benign face of the North to the world so that any further strengthening of the UN sanctions is avoided and the existing sanctions are imposed only half-heartedly. For instance, in the current friendly atmosphere South Korean Navy is unlikely to seize any ship which may be violating the UN sanctions to supply fuel to the North. North Korea and China would also seek an indefinite postponement of the US-South Korea military exercises, which stand deferred till the conclusion of the Winter Olympics.

After the series of nuclear and missile tests in 2017, North Korea claims to have achieved the nuclear and ICBM capacity to mount an attack on the US mainland and, thus, the ability to deter the US from any military action against North Korea. The slick moves this year commencing from their leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year message to sending his charming sister Kim Yo-jong as a member of the Olympic delegation have enabled the North to seize the initiative. The formulation and execution of a well-thought-out policy indicates that the North Korean leader is clever and rational. The slanderous reports in the Western media questioning Mr Jong-un’s mental stability need to be dismissed as propaganda.

The sports diplomacy will continue as International Olympic Committee president Thomas Bach plans to visit North Korea soon and has said the IOC will support North Korea’s participation in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

The deft moves by North Korea and the enthusiasm of President Moon Jae-in to commence unconditional talks with the North have limited US’ room to determine its North Korea policy. Harmonising the South Korean and the US policies towards North Korea in the coming months would be challenging for both the sides.

The writer is a retired ambassador