May's poll gamble fails', lead falls further

London: British Prime Minister Theresa May’s gamble on a snap election was under question on Thursday after a YouGov opinion poll showed her Conservative party’s lead had fallen to a fresh low of three percentage points just a week before voting begins.

A failure to win the June 8 election with a large majority would weaken Ms May just as formal Brexit talks are due to begin while the loss of her majority in parliament would pitch British politics into turmoil.

The election is much closer than thought. Ms May’s lead has collapsed from 24 points since she surprised both rivals and financial markets on April 18 by calling the election, YouGov data showed. OppositionLabour polled 39 per cent against the Conservatives’ 42 per cent.

After a hectic campaign which was suspended by a suicide bombing last week, pollsters have offered a vast range for the result of the election: From May losing her majority to a landslide victory for her Conservatives of more than 100 seats.

Betting that she would win a strong majority, Ms May called the snap election to strengthen her position at home as she embarked on complicated Brexit negotiations with 27 other members of the European Union.

But if she fails to beat the 12-seat majority herpredecessor David Cameron won in 2015, her electoral gamble will have failed and her authority will be seriously undermined.

If Ms May fails to win an overall majority, she would be forced to strike a deal with another party to continue governing either as a coalition or a minority government.

That would have uncertain consquences for Britain’s $ 2.5trillion economy, and future government policy on everything from government spending and corporate taxation to bond issuance.

Sterling weakened against the dollar late Wednesday after the YouGov poll but was trading at 1.2862 early on Thursday, 3 cents above where it was trading at the start of thecampaign.