The equity market might see a 200-point swing on knee-jerk reaction to the poll outcome
Mumbai: As the equity market eagerly awaits the outcome of assembly elections in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telengana and Mizoram, the satta market trends indicate a tough fight for the BJP in its strongholds of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The Congress party is emerging as a strong contender for regaining power after a long gap in these states.
The Congress prospects have improved remarkably and the satta market bets in Bhopal, the capital of Madyha Pradesh, shows the BJP may not get a majority in the state, though these betting trends do not always reflect ground realities.
Equity market participants tracking the satta market trends expect a defeat for the ruling BJP in Rajasthan and a close fight, with a 50:50 chance for the BJP, in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the assembly elections, whose outcome will be known on December 11.
The equity market might see a 200-point swing on knee-jerk reaction to the poll outcome, but market experts do not expect the results to have a significant bearing on 2019 general elections, as voters tend to vote differently for assembly and general elections.
Political observers say the current round of elections would not significantly alter the seat tally for the BJP-led National Democratic Front in the 2019 general elections. There are chances of BJP getting 10 seats less in Rajasthan and 30 seats less in Uttar Pradesh and losing another 20 seats overall, taking the total tally to 60 less than what it managed in 2014 in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This would, however, be compensated by 25 seats more in the North East, eight more seats in Orissa and 20 more seats in West Bengal, they say.
Anti-incumbency is playing out for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, with the party having only a 50 per cent chance of retaining power. In Chhattisgarh, the voters have already sealed the fate of candidates in the two-phase polling completed on November 20.
The prospect of both BJP and Congress having a chance to form the government in MP has led to bookies getting active in the Satta market of Bhopal.
According to reports, in the satta market in Bhopal, the Congress is having an edge with market accepting bets for 115-plus seats for party and 100-plus seats for the BJP in the 230-member house.
But Rajasthan seems a washout. “The BJP will be losing Rajasthan this time as the chief minister Vasundhra Raje Sindhia’s performance has not been taken well by the people. Earlier an offer was made to her to join the central government by the central leadership but she refused. Because of her relations with Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), going back to her mother late Vijaya Raje Scindia’s close ties with the RSS, even the central leadership could not force her to change her mind because of the RSS factor,” said an observer of Rajasthan politics and an equity market player.
“People on the ground do not have a good opinion about the current chief minister, but what can work for the BJP is the magic of Narendra Modi. There is a regional bias in state elections and the Opposition has also fielded a candidate from the royal family against Vasundhra Raje Sindhia. It is going to be a tough fight,” he said.