After the Supreme Court delivered its verdict Wednesday on the SLP involving Nabam Rebia and Bamang Felix vs Deputy Speaker and others, it is clear it was an “open and shut” case. Many may term this a historic judgment, but to an equal number of political watchers the turn of events was a repeat of the Bihar Assembly case of 2005 when then governor Buta Singh recommended President’s Rule in May 2005, and almost a year later, in January 2006, the Supreme Court held that the governor’s recommendation was unconstitutional and it severely criticised Mr Singh’s role and the UPA Cabinet’s wisdom, but by then Nitish Kumar won a comfortable majority after a snap election in October 2005.
Therefore, one shouldn’t buy the argument that the ruling on Wednesday was unprecedented. It is not the first time a governor has been rapped for overstepping the Constitution, nor has the wisdom of the Union Cabinet and the President been questioned for the first time.
It is, however, a historic repeat of Bihar Assembly case that had exposed the farcical delayed justice system of our country which has been the cause of much heartburn. This judgment too has come very late in the day. Much water has surged down the river in the past five months.
Kalikho Pul had 19 Congress legislators then, but today he counts 30 Congress MLAs as his supporters, who had joined the lone regional political party, People’s Party of Arunachal, besides two Independent MLAs who joined his government. To bolster it, 11 BJP MLAs have extended outside support to his PPA government. All told, the tally of Mr Pul’s government has gone up to 43 MLAs as of today.
Going by the July 13 ruling, former chief minister Nabam Tuki can’t be a happy man. He must be crestfallen to find that justice was not only delayed, but that he was denied the chair since January 26. But one also wonders what took the three learned judges — Justices Jagdish Singh Kehar, Dipak Mishra and Madan B. Lokur — so long to turn the clock back to the pre-December 15 status; though the bench of three judges had almost hinted at this way back on February 23, 2016.
The constitutional position having being established, it is the political situation that is now precariously perched in Arunachal Pradesh once again, and a diabolical fallout is anticipated in law and order too. The knives have been unsheathed; the social media in the state bordering China is now awash with messages on how “turning back of the clock” is actually a “turning back on the people” that saw an abundance of development activities, restoration of law and order during and after President’s Rule.
Wednesday’s order means the effective strength of the Arunachal Pradesh Assembly is restored to 58 MLAs, with Nabam Rebia as Speaker and Nabam Tuki as chief minister once again. Prior to December 15, the BJP had 11 MLAs, two were Independent MLAs and the Congress had 45 MLAs as two Congressmen were unseated in the first week of December.
Logically, from New Delhi to Itanagar, everyone seems to be either wondering or strategising about the next political moves. Every politician worth his/her salt is quiet, except the Tuki camp that has erupted in jubilation, hailing it as a “victory of democracy”. Every attempt to contact PPA or BJP leaders is met with a measured response, but without much content, as they are all huddled in a serendipitous meeting of the North East Democratic Alliance being held in Guwahati, chaired by BJP president Amit Shah.
The Itanagar Raj Bhavan, meanwhile, has a new occupant in Tathaghata Roy, who is acting governor since July 11 in the absence of J.P. Rajkhowa, said to be on medical leave in South India. Mr Tuki called Mr Rajkhowa an honourable man in the national media on Wednesday, but earlier it was his camp that called the governor an RSS agent and Raj Bhavan a BJP office. By that yardstick, the new incumbent, Mr Roy, is a self-declared RSS man who wears it as a badge of honour.
Notwithstanding the Supreme Court’s verdict, the political reading of the changed situation is none too good for Mr Tuki. Even if he returns to the chief minister’s chair, he is unlikely to survive beyond the date of a fresh floor test, either of his government or of the Speaker’s impeachment if it has to be taken up with the clock turned back.
Though the BJP was accused of fishing in troubled waters during last winter, the fact remains that it was the PPA that benefited a lot as a political entity, despite the party not having the requisite wherewithal to withstand the pressure of an old crumbling structure called Congress. Therefore, Mr Pul’s PPA government is likely to lean heavily on the BJP for advice and support, but the ruling party at the Centre is unlikely to yield much without a hard bargain. The saffron political posturing is no secret as the most popular face of the state BJP, Union minister of state for home Kiren Rijiju, made it quite clear back in February that he did not want to be chief minister, and of late former two-time BJP national general secretary and current state chief Tapir Gao has minced no words in declaring the party’s intent to form the next government. Given such a sequence of events, a majority of people in the state have become extremely cynical about politicians and their ways, and many feel that President’s Rule leads to better governance, as they experienced in the 25-day period between January 26 and February 20 this year.
The writer is the founding editor of Eastern Sentinel, a leading Itanagar daily
