After the national conventions of the two main American political parties, the decks have been cleared for serious campaigning in a presidential election unique in US history. It is unique as Donald Trump, a billionaire, has run away with the Republican nomination against the wishes of its establishment and Hillary Clinton, who stood down for Barack Obama eight years ago, is fighting a “trust deficit”, despite being the most qualified candidate in history, in Mr Obama’s words.
In an election that was earlier regarded as a shoo-in for Ms Clinton, polls suggest a close call, largely due to the level of the American voter’s dissatisfaction with the establishment and the political elite. Mr Trump exploited this situation by presenting himself as the “outsider” to clean up the political mess and restore jobs.
Ms Clinton’s handicap is that she is viewed as part of the establishment, perhaps too close to Wall Street, and unlike her husband Bill Clinton, who had two successful terms in the White House despite his peccadilloes, she doesn’t seem to have his magic touch to connect with ordinary people.
So we have a campaign in which Mr Trump makes the most outrageous policy suggestions such as keeping all Muslim migrants out, building a wall to keep illegal Mexicans out and throwing out an estimated 11 million undocumented men and families. In his convention speech, he cleverly exploited recent mass killings to declare that only he was capable of bringing peace and keeping terrorists out and getting back lost jobs. His main strength lies in the constituency of less-educated middle class whites who feel lost as they are overtaken by the march of technology. Until now, his outlandish proposals don’t appear to have hurt him; he has developed a Teflon skin.
Ms Clinton comes from the other end of the scale with enviable experience as First Lady, senator and US secretary of state. But during the primaries, her thunder was stolen by Bernie Sanders who fired the young with his left-leaning remedies even as young women were more receptive to his ideas even as they seemed turned off by Ms Clinton’s declarations, despite the fact that she is the first woman presidential candidate nominated by a major party in America’s history. For his part, Mr Sanders gave his support to Ms Clinton at the convention.
Part of the reason for the American electorate’s sour mood is in the very high level of inequality in incomes. The rich are getting richer every day while middle class incomes are stagnant and less educated whites have lost their jobs to factories moving to cheaper countries or to automation. No wonder the nub of Vice-President Joe Biden’s speech at the Democratic convention was that the billionaire Trump had no clue about the middle classes.
During her speech at the Democratic convention, Ms Clinton pressed all the right buttons and presented herself as the candidate of hope against Mr Trump’s gloomy view of America — in a felicitous phrase, she said “love trumps hate” — and invoked Sanders’ name in an effort to win over his young constituency, an uphill task.
At the end of what promises to be a nasty campaign, given Mr Trump’s no-holds-barred methods, the result will in all probability be decided by the doubtful segment. The truth is that many thinking and articulate people are not enthused by either candidate. If for many Mr Trump is more like a cartoon character than a real-life person, Ms Clinton doesn’t inspire confidence as a sincere leader working for the public good.
A growing volume of literature is emerging on the crisis of capitalism. The United States is at the centre of it as it is the high priest of capitalism. The fact that innovators of globalisation are facing backlash from their home constituency and Mr Trump’s success in winning sections of doubters are telling examples of the streak of nationalism that is plaguing America.
While Americans have lost manufacturing jobs, the richest segments are those in service industries dominated by Internet-related financial mechanisms. Their incomes are out of all proportion to middle class wages, many studies concluding that middle class incomes have even regressed in real terms. No wonder Ms Clinton had a warning for Wall Street in her convention speech, that it should do the patriotic act by retaining jobs at home.
While the world is still betting on Ms Clinton making it as the first US woman President, the political convulsions thrown up by the primaries have consequences for the rest of the world. One of President Obama’s legacies, the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal that Ms Clinton has had to repudiate for electoral reasons, is in danger.
Second, Mr Trump cast aspersions on the bulwark of the post-World War II military arrangement, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and has been vocal in demanding that European nations pay their fair share in return for protection. President Obama himself has urged Europeans to measure up to paying the agreed two per cent of national GDP on defence, but the Republican’s threat is of a different magnitude.
Mr Trump’s slogan is to “make America great again”, to which the Democrats’ answer is that it remains great.
Ms Clinton has sought to castigate a gloomy picture of America by suggesting that on the contrary the country had a bright future while being careful not to decry the nationalist streak Mr Trump is mining.
The Democratic convention heard some impressive speeches from President Obama, his wife Michelle, Vice-President Biden, Mr Sanders and Bill Clinton. Replicating the Republican family theme, Ms Clinton’s daughter Chelsea introduced her mother in suitably adulatory terms. The presidential nominee herself was eloquent.
The United States must now get down to what promises to be a dirty election campaign. In Mr Trump’s dictionary, civility and manners are expendable for seizing the prize.
