It is a famous victory in Bihar for two regional leaders, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav, even as the over-confident Bharatiya Janata Party licks its wounds on its rout at the hands of the coalition. The defeat for the ruling party at the Centre is all the more bitter because Prime Minister Narendra Modi was his party’s main campaigner and had pitted himself against the chief minister, as has been his wont in a succession of state elections, contrary to convention.
The results, as the nation watched on main television channels, was not without its moment of black comedy as the common feed to the private channels had got it wrong by giving the BJP-led combine a winning majority, going by trends. As the local channels gave a totally contrary picture, the national outlets corrected themselves even as armchair pundits were pontificating on the reasons for a BJP victory.
The BJP’s tactic of polarising voters on communal and caste lines, successfully tried in previous Assembly elections, failed in Bihar despite the Prime Minister’s own hectic campaigning because of three main factors. Remarkably, no one in the state had a bad word to say about Mr Kumar. Rather, there was praise for what he had done for his people and for development in his stints as chief minister. Second, despite the constant taunts he faced from Mr Modi on the “jungle raj” during his party’s days in power interspersed with his own conviction, Mr Yadav’s social base remains intact and his vote-pulling power remains undiminished.
But the most important factor was Mr Modi himself and his government’s record of the past 17 months. The “Modi wave” that gave him a spectacular election victory in last year’s general election and took his party past the victory post in subsequent state elections bar Delhi has waned. And his efforts to resort to the familiar communal card backfired. First, he tried to surmount the embarrassment caused by his mentor, chief of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, seeking a review of caste reservations in a caste-based polity by suggesting that it was Mr Kumar’s coalition that wanted to take away a percentage of reservations to give to Muslims.
Seldom has an Assembly election seen such low level of campaign rhetoric, made more telling by the Prime Minister’s association with it. Even before a blatant cow advertisement made its appearance on the front pages of major local Hindi newspapers later to be objected to by the Election Commission, BJP president Amit Shah, who had parked himself in Bihar for weeks, made the ultimate communal pitch by declaring that they would fire crackers in Pakistan if the BJP were to lose in Bihar. And much play was made of the evils of beef eating. Indeed, Mr Shah’s pitch on Pakistan seemed a sign of desperation.
The thumping victory of the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal of Mr Yadav was a fitting answer indicating the Bihar voters’ sagacity and ability to read the essence of the communal message. The tragedy for the BJP was compounded by Mr Modi’s role as the chief campaigner. Will it lead to a change in future Assembly elections remains to be seen because the question ultimately boils down to the Prime Minister’s freedom of action in an RSS-dominated power structure.
The kind of defeat suffered by the BJP-led combine in Bihar has portentous consequences for Mr Modi and the country. How long can he and his party continue to pursue the path of Hindutva in a multi-ethnic and multi-religious country With a population of more than 172 million Muslims and other important minorities, parsing the polity along religious lines is a divisive exercise. As it is, the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh is seeking a review of population policy given the increase in Muslim population although the birth rate of Muslims has fallen over the past decade.
Besides, the number of outrageous statements BJP leaders, including members of Parliament and Mr Modi’s ministers, are continuing to make unchallenged by the party leadership grows each day. Embarrassed by these provocative remarks, the BJP has let it known that it is privately warning erring members. But these worthies retain their offices and Mr Modi does not follow the simple expedient of contradicting his men in public or sacking them.
The questions the results of the Bihar election raise have a bearing on the future of Mr Modi’s government at the Centre. The BJP lost Delhi by a landslide but it is essentially a city-state. Bihar is a different matter altogether because it is a barometer state in the Hindi heartland and represents a big setback in a succession of the Prime Minister’s victories. The spell has now been broken and the new political benchmark for assessing the Central government’s performance will be counted in post-Bihar terms. Significantly, a party functionary spoke on the Bihar defeat and took pains to make the point that it would not dent Mr Modi’s image.
In the BJP-RSS hierarchy, it ultimately boils down to the autonomy an RSS man exercising political power — Mr Modi was seconded by the RSS to the party like many others — enjoys. He had largely succeeded in promoting economic development during his time in Gujarat by setting aside RSS pulls. The stark difference is that the nation is not Gujarat and given the RSS contribution to his national victory, it is demanding its pound of flesh. Mr Modi has already surrendered two areas — education and culture — to the mercies of the RSS with the disastrous results we are witnessing each day. How much further will the RSS lead Mr Modi by the nose
It is, in a sense, a blessing that Bihar has come rather early during Mr Modi’s five-year term at the Centre. Both he and the country can assess the results of the style and content of his rule. An expected reshuffle of his Cabinet cannot work wonders. Can he break free from his chains
The writer can be contacted at snihalsingh@gmail.com
