The Congress seems to be in much deeper trouble than ever before. The crisis is bigger than reflected by its successive defeats in various states after its massive loss in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Not only have many loyal voters, who backed the Congress in election after election and stayed with it even in bad times, now turned their backs, even some leaders appear to have lost faith in its ability to win future elections. Some declined to fight the Lok Sabha polls, citing one excuse or another, while others decided to leave the party. The trend of moving to other parties, that began just before the Lok Sabha polls, is continuing. Recent instances of cross-voting by MLAs in the Rajya Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh indicates that things are not all well within the party in UP, which goes to the polls early next year. With voters turning away, leaders losing faith and an apparent leadership vacuum, reviving the party will be harder than it has ever been.
The massive defeat in 2014 and in subsequent Assembly polls poses an enormous challenge. The Congress was not only voted out of power at the Centre, it lost one state after another for different reasons. As of now, it is the sole ruling party only in four states — Karnataka, Himachal, Manipur and Uttarakhand, and part of the ruling coalition in some others like Bihar, Puducherry, Mizoram and Meghalaya. The BJP is celebrating these Congress defeats as it senses it is moving towards what Narendra Modi has described as a “Congress-mukt Bharat”. Congress leaders, however, insist that while it’s a difficult time for the party, it will soon bounce back as it has in the past.
True, the Congress did face a major crisis in 1977 and again in 1989 when it lost power at the Centre, but in both cases managed to stage a comeback in just a few years. This, however, will not be so easy now. There is hardly any sign it is trying to win back voters who deserted it in recent years. It seems the Congress is content to hope that people will soon get disenchanted with the BJP for failing to deliver on its promises, and vote for it again. That may be a mistake.
The Congress may no longer be the natural beneficiary of any anti-incumbency wave as it has vacated the Opposition space in several states to other parties. While it remains the largest Opposition party at the national level, despite its substantially reduced numbers, it will find it hard to retain this given that regional parties are in a dominant position in many states.
The Congress’ present crisis is far deeper than one can imagine. At the central level, it polled its lowest voteshare (19.6 per cent), and ended up with just 44 Lok Sabha seats and couldn’t even retain the post of Leader of the Opposition in the Lower House. Had it only been the Lok Sabha defeat, it could have come back soon, but the crisis didn’t end there. It suffered a debacle in all state polls after that. Compared to its voteshare in earlier Assembly polls, its voteshare fell in all states after 2014. In Haryana, where it was in power for a decade, its voteshare fell 15 per cent and it was pushed back to third position, with the Indian National Lok Dal getting the main Opposition slot. In Delhi, it lost after being in power 15 years, pushed to third position, with its voteshare falling to single digits (9.6 per cent). In Maharashtra, where it was part of the ruling coalition with the NCP, it was pushed to third position. In Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir too, its voteshare declined.
In recent Assembly polls, its voteshare and seats tally rose in Bihar and Puducherry, where the Congress is part of the ruling alliance. In all other states that went to the polls (Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), it could hardly improve on its electoral performance compared to previous Assembly elections.
These Congress defeats send out a deeper message than just being voted out. In the past, even when it lost power, it remained the first choice of poor and downtrodden voters, in the tradition of “Congress ka haath, garibon ke saath”. But recent surveys by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) show even those who were earlier loyal to Congress (poor, dalits, Muslims, adivasis), have deserted it in a big way. For the first time, the poor and dalits voted more for the BJP than Congress, turning the table upside down for the party despite it having initiated the NREGA programme in an aggressive way. Muslims who stayed loyal to the Congress for decades have moved to regional parties.
Compared to 60-65 per cent Muslims voting for the Congress in earlier elections, now only 30 per cent of Muslims vote for the Congress, that too in states where the party is in a direct contest with the BJP. There is something seriously wrong if even loyal voters have turned their back to the party.
The question now is: what may help the Congress revive in states and at the national level. I believe it is not so much that policies that have failed the party, the far bigger crisis within the party is its leadership. It is the leadership question that appears to be bothering voters most. After all, two years of BJP rule indicates there is hardly any big difference between the two parties over policies.
The only thing that differentiates the BJP from the Congress is the issue of leadership. Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi is a poor match for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while for the Congress Mr Gandhi seems to be both an asset and a liability. The problem is that while the Congress badly needs a change in leadership, there is a real danger that any attempt to elect a new leader may result in factions surfacing that may split the organisation. The choice for the party is hardly easy.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
