After over a decade of deliberations, India and the United States earlier this week finally signed the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMoA) in Washington DC. This is one of the so-called foundational agreements that will enable the United States and India to use each other’s military, air and naval bases for the purposes of refuelling and replenishment of their armed forces.
Does this agreement finally herald a new era in Indo-US relations At this stage it may be too early to tell. There is, quite frankly, far too much baggage on both sides dating back from the Cold War era for the two countries to enter a wholly new period in their relations. In the United States there are still lingering memories of India’s close ties to the erstwhile Soviet Union. In India, in turn, too many individuals and groups recall American support for Pakistan during much of the Cold War and even beyond.
These still constitute significant stumbling blocks in the pursuit of a closer relationship. That said, there are important and compelling reasons why the future may not be similar to the past. This is where two simple concepts from the study of international relations offer us useful clues. These two concepts are those of “structure” and “agency”.
The first refers to the distribution of power in the international order and how it either constrains or drives the behaviour of nation states. The second refers to the choices and actions of national leaders. It is their interaction that produces both policy continuity and change.
India now finds itself at a juncture when the political order in Asia is in flux. There is little question that its principal adversary, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), is virtually on an inexorable pathway toward the expansion of its strategic reach and influence. Given that the People’s Republic has a very different vision of regional order, New Delhi has much reason to fret about its increasing assertiveness in Asia in general and around the subcontinent in particular.
In effect, the structural distribution of power is swiftly changing and in ways that could be quite inimical to India’s overall national security. The United States, for its part, also recognises that India has the basic wherewithal to be able to play an important role in constraining the increasing boldness of the PRC.
Under these circumstances India has two basic choices that it could adopt. First, it could build up its domestic military capabilities. In considerable measure, regardless of which government has been in power in New Delhi, this process has been under way for quite some time. However, policymakers in New Delhi are increasingly beginning to realise that mere internal mobilisation of its military capabilities may well fall short of meeting India’s emerging national security needs.
Second, they can seek the assistance of another major power even if India’s present political culture may make it all but impossible to align with such a state. This is precisely where the issue of “agency” arises. Leaders can choose to strengthen ties with a great power to augment India’s own capabilities.
In this context, the current Indian leadership under Prime Minister Narendra Modi represents an important break with the past. Even though Indo-US relations improved dramatically under the United Progressive Alliance government headed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, there were distinct limits to such enhancement. Many senior figures within the Congress Party who had been weaned on a steady diet of reflexive anti-Americanism simply could not abandon their fondness for such sentiments. Instead, they selectively highlighted the shortcomings of American policy toward South Asia and ensured that there were distinct limits to the development of the relationship.
It is evident that Prime Minister Modi and his cohorts do not share these ideological nostrums. Had they shared those beliefs, Mr Modi would never have been inclined to invite US President Barack Obama as the chief guest at the Republic Day parade in New Delhi in January 2015. The gesture, no doubt, was symbolic. However, the symbolism was of no small significance and clearly signalled the beginning of a new chapter in India-US relations.
Since then India has emerged as a major importer of American weaponry and is involved in discussions about the possible joint construction of an aircraft carrier and the acquisition of an entire production line of combat aircraft. It is obviously too early to predict that either of these two discussions will come to a successful conclusion. However, the mere fact that they are even under consideration portends that a new phase in the India-US relationship could well be in the offing.
It is already evident that the structural conditions are quite propitious for bringing the two sides closer. The real question that remains is whether or not key “agents” in Washington DC and particularly in New Delhi are able and willing to make certain critical choices that would place this relationship, which has seen its share of vicissitudes, on a more secure footing to considerable mutual benefit.
The writer holds the Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilisations at Indiana University, Bloomington.
