The global security situation is changing fast and India, currently focused on economic growth while it deals diplomatically with what is now being termed as “hybrid war”, needs to adapt quickly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, despite his numerous successful foreign visits, needs to shift his attention towards the Indian Navy.
The Indian Navy, which celebrates Navy Day on December 4, is manfully shouldering its responsibilities for hybrid and nuclear deterrence. New home-built ships are joining the fleet while the home-built SSBN (ship submersible ballistic nuclear submarine), INS Arihant, is carrying out its final sea trials and should join the Navy soon. Also, in October this year the Indian Navy had published its updated maritime doctrine, titled “Ensuring Secure Seas: Indian Maritime Security Strategy”. This is the fourth such document since 1998. It shows how the Navy is aware of its growing responsibilities. However, the final strategic decisions can only be taken by Mr Modi. I hope India will soon get rid of the dubious tag of being the only major nation without a national strategy document.
Tensions continue in the South China Sea where the US Navy has carried out “freedom of navigation patrols” (FONP) near the artificial islands newly created by the Chinese. India, whose 50 per cent sea-borne trade passes through the South China Sea, should support this move. However, its Navy does not have the assets to participate in the FONP. Despite all the bonhomie between Mr Modi, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Barack Obama, the fact remains that the Indian Navy has a growing but still very limited blue-water capability to operate in the Indian Ocean, with limited annual deployments of about 60 days to the South and East China Seas.
The Indian Navy needs more funds for accelerated growth because the Pak-China sea-borne threat will only grow with terror and nuclear weapons going to sea on Pakistan’s naval ships and submarines. Nonetheless, aware of the importance of Indian sea power, Mr Modi will, within a few days of Indian Navy Day, board the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya at sea to address the tri-service commanders conference on December 15. Next year from February 5-8, the Indian Navy will play host to over 90 warships from over 50 nations when the second International Fleet Review (IFR) is held at Visakhapatnam, and President Pranab Mukherjee (also in attendance will be Mr Modi, ministers, governors, ambassadors, foreign and Indian military personnel) will review the warships at anchor. India held its first IFR at Mumbai wherein China refused to participate because Pakistan was not invited. During the last decade, China has held two IFRs and the Indian Navy participated. Thus China will attend IFR 2016. Pakistan, though invited for the first time, is unlikely to participate.
While India has improved strategic ties with the US and Japan, Mr Modi needs to urgently clear misgivings in Moscow, which is our only supplier or potential supplier of nuclear submarines, fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft (FGFA) and space exploration technology. Russia — with its economy in shambles due to Western embargoes, falling oil prices and upset by India buying expensive weapons from the US and France — has decided to sell helicopter gunships to Pakistan and the latest Su-35 fighter jets to China.
Russian nationalism and the need to flex its military muscle in support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria surprised many Western “experts” who were astonished by the ruthless and clinical military efficiency displayed by “bankrupt” Russian airstrikes and “Kaliber” land attack cruise missiles launched by small warships sailing 1,500 km away in the Caspian Sea.
Many years ago I had visited Yekaterinburg in the Urals where, on July 17, 1918, the last Emperor of Russia and his family were executed. Located not far from this execution spot is the cruise missile factory, which even 15 to 20 years ago made cruise missiles with ranges of 1,500 to 2,500 km, and these could be armed with conventional or nuclear warheads.
While, India has similarity of views with almost all major nations on issues like climate change, combating terror, etc., it cannot ignore Pakistan, which for geo-strategic and geo-political reasons is “kept afloat” by the US, China (subsidised military and nuclear aid) and Saudi Arabia (money).
Having attended numerous international conferences in the last two years, I have noticed a deliberate and growing Western trend to “re-hyphenate” Pakistan with India, and give Pakistan a civil nuclear deal similar to India, while also talking of the Kashmir dispute.
It appears that the West and China are keen to use Pakistan’s strategic location to safeguard their interests in mineral-rich Afghanistan and oil-rich West Asia. Pakistan is happy to play the regional role of a “local mercenary force”.
China, which has a border dispute with India, has pledged $46 billion in the “China-Pakistan Eco-nomic Corridor” which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and connects the strategically located Gwadar Port.
The challenge for Mr Modi is to avoid getting India sucked into the conflict while expanding the role and reach of the Navy. India needs to enhance its defence and homeland security capabilities (and raise military morale) while creating the climate to ensure that India’s economic growth of 7.5 per cent not only continues but also crosses 8 per cent so that our present $2 trillion GDP reaches $5 trillion by 2025. Hopefully it will reach $25 trillion in 2050, by which time India should be a superpower with a three-ocean Navy capable of serving our national interests in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
The writer retired as Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of the Eastern Naval Command, Visakhapatnam
