The passage of the long-pending Goods and Services Tax Bill in the Rajya Sabha last week was a big achievement for the Narendra Modi government as it was finding it hard to negotiate with the Opposition, that had a majority in the Upper House. While the GST may help bring down the prices of some goods and services with a uniform tax across states, it is difficult to believe it would help control the prices of essential commodities like foodgrain, pulses and edible oil. Realising this, the government is planning to put a cap on maximum prices for the pulses by bringing it under the Essential Commodities Act.
Here the common man will be reminded of the BJP’s promise to usher in “achche din” in every aspect of national life. A large majority of those who voted for the BJP in record numbers in 2014 now believe that “achche din” is not coming.
The findings of surveys done by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies in all states that have gone to the polls after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections clearly indicate that while people still rate the work done by the Modi government in little over two years positively, a large chunk of them believe Mr Modi has failed to usher in the “achche din” that he had himself promised.
While this view was not strong in the first few months of the Modi government, public anxiety has grown over the months, and even in a state like Assam, where the BJP won an impressive victory recently, many feel that Mr Modi had failed to keep his promises.
The real test of any government is how the aam aadmi sees it, as perception plays an important role in politics; it helps political parties win and lose.
There is a shared view among ordinary people that this government is more honest than its UPA predecessor, but with atrocities against dalits and Muslims erupting across regions due to the activities of the “gau raksha dal”, there is also the view that the NDA is far less tolerant than the previous government.
The government has come out with facts and figures on its achievements in the last two years, but all this is negated as negative perceptions start to build up.
The government tried to help farmers in deep crisis in recent years by launching the Krishi Sinchayee Yojana to give universal access to irrigation, integrated 585 mandis through the National Agricultural Marketing Scheme and a common e-platform, introduced the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana to protect farmers from the vagaries of nature. But this hasn’t helped make a positive difference in the lives of farmers across states. The pre-poll promise of increasing the minimum support price by 50 per cent still remains unfulfilled.
The government has succeeded in passing the Aadhaar Bill in Parliament, enabling it to go in for direct cash transfers as LPG subsidy, that seems to have saved it Rs 12,700 crores annually. The Jan Dhan Aadhaar Mobile scheme is expected to plug leakages and corruption and ensure direct transfer of subsidies to the tune of thousands of crores to beneficiaries. The Swachchh Bharat Abhiyan, one of Mr Modi’s pet projects, has been touted as a success with 87 lakh toilets being built, against the target of 60 lakhs in 2014-15. But evidence from the ground indicates that, far from benefiting large sections. many are unaware about several such programmes.
Government data shows that road construction has risen from 8.5 km per day in 2014-2015 to 11.9 km per day to 16.5 km in 2015-16. The building of national highways went up from 3,500 km in 2013-14 to 10,000 km in 2015-16. Rural infrastructure also saw the laying of 35,000 km of rural roads in 2014-15, which is 11,000 km more than in the previous year. The average rate of expansion of railway tracks has risen to 7 km per day during 2015-16, up from 4.3 km per day in the previous six years. The government claims to have made huge strides in rural electrification, with 7,501 villages electrified, that leaves 18,452 Indian villages yet to be electrified.
But a lot remains to be done. Critics allege exports have been negative in the past two years, manufacturing growth measured by the Index of Industrial production has grown marginally by 1-2 per cent, agriculture remains in distress and services have remained stagnant. The nation has seen only a fragile recovery.
Job creation has been the lowest in the past 8-9 years — a survey by the Labour Bureau says that in eight key labour-intensive industries, only 0.1 million jobs were created last year, compared to 0.4 million jobs created in 2014, even worse than the former low of 0.3 million in 2012.
And while the government has relaxed FDI norms for key sectors like defence, food production, railways, coffee, rubber and several others, we are yet to see how this will help in the revival of the economy.
A judgment on the government’s performance by looking at the prices of essential commodities, or to see if the life of the common man has become better, will certainly tilt in the negative direction. What has certainly disappointed the people at large is the negation of hopes by none less than BJP president Amit Shah on bringing back the black money stashed overseas. Clearly, there are more negatives than positives in the citizen’s evaluation of government performance.
With the NDA almost halfway through its five-year term, and with just over two years left, it will have to work really hard to complete its unfinished tasks. The fruits of some initiatives may soon be more visible, but whatever it does achieve in the time it has left, there will be a gap in the expectations the party generated among people before the 2014 elections and what it may be able to deliver. The question is: will this gap lead to dissatisfaction and frustration We may begin to get a glimpse of that from the electoral verdict in states that go to the polls in the next two years, before the grand finale of 2019.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
