The BJP’s success in four Assembly polls after the 2014 Lok Sabha verdict, in Haryana, Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir, signalled that the Narendra Modi wave was continuing, but the massive defeats in the Delhi and Bihar elections put a big questionmark on whether that wave lingered, or if the BJP’s popularity was on the decline.
The party’s triumph in Assam, and the outcome of the Assembly polls in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala were seen as an endorsement of the Centre’s work. No one can deny that the successes in these states are a clear indication that the BJP is more popular than other parties, but it may not be entirely correct to jump to the conclusion that the BJP’s victories are an endorsement of the Centre’s policies.
While there is no visible sign of people’s unhappiness in the past two years of BJP rule and no indication of any decline in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, the BJP’s success in these states are due to various reasons. In some states, it emerged victorious due to the division of the anti-BJP vote, in others it won due to a strong anti-incumbency factor. Local issues and local leaderships also contributed to the victory in some states.
If we compare the BJP’s popular vote in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly polls in 10 big states — Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand, J&K, Delhi, Bihar, West Bengal, Assam, Kerala and Tamil Nadu — the BJP’s popular vote declined in eight out of 10 states by two to 20 per cent.
Only in two states — Assam and Kerala — did the vote share increase. The vote for the BJP in Assam can hardly be seen as an endorsement of the Centre’s policies, it was a vote against 15 years of Congress rule.
Also, not only were the elections mainly fought over state and local issues, the BJP contested them under the local leadership, such as by projecting Sarbananda Sonowal as its CM candidate in Assam well in advance.
A survey by the Centre for Study of Developing Societies indicates that a huge majority (60 per cent) was satisfied with the Central government’s work, but it is not clear what bearing this had on the minds of voters while casting their ballots.
In Delhi and Bihar, where the BJP was badly defeated, a large majority (Delhi 66 per cent; Bihar 72 per cent) also expressed satisfaction with the Central government’s work, but this didn’t help the BJP electorally. In Kerala, a slightly lesser number (55 per cent) was satisfied with the Centre’s work, but the BJP’s voteshare rose from 12 to 16 per cent. People clearly expressed their desire for the third alternative, but this was not any endorsement for the Centre’s functioning.
The story is not very different in other states where the BJP won either alone or in alliance. In Haryana, where it managed to form the government on its own, 66 per cent felt satisfied with the Centre’s work. But the party’s vote share actually declined from 44 per cent (per seat in 2014 Lok Sabha polls) to 33 per cent in the Assembly polls the same year.
In Jharkhand, where a massive 81 per cent felt satisfied with the Centre’s performance, the BJP’s voteshare fell from 40 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls to 35 per cent in the Assembly elections later that year.
In Maharashtra, where the BJP’s voteshare remained the same (27 per cent in Lok Sabha; 28 per cent in Assembly) in the two elections, 60 per cent felt satisfied with the work of the Central government.
There are some differences in the level of people’s satisfaction with the Centre’s work in different states, but overall it is a decent endorsement of work done by any government, an indication of the high level of satisfaction with the government’s performance.
There is hardly any sign of disenchantment with the work of the Centre in these 10 states, and it may be safe to assume that popular opinion on this issue may not be very different in several other states.
There are clear indications that Mr Modi remains popular among large sections of Indian voters, and far more popular compared to many other leaders. But still, there may be some issues that may worry the BJP about its two years of governance.
The two big defeats in Delhi and Bihar in 2015 must be seen as some sort of failure of the wining duo — Mr Modi and BJP president Amit Shah — as the poll campaign in these two states were clearly led by these leaders.
On the other hand, the Assam success cannot be seen as a victory for Mr Modi and Mr Shah. Clearly the architect of this Assam victory is Mr Sonowal. There is hardly any doubt that the BJP’s popularity increased in the past few years, but its victory in many states is due to its alliance or due to a split in the anti-BJP vote.
Had the Opposition parties managed to forge an alliance in Jharkhand, Maharashtra or Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP’s victory may not have been easy. On the other hand, had the RJD and JD(U) not formed an alliance in Bihar, that prevented votes being split between the two, the BJP may well have won the elections even in Bihar.
Elections are all about popularity, but votes come from trust. The fact that people’s trust has somewhat declined on “Achche din aane wale hai” should be a matter of grave concern for the BJP. In eight states (except Haryana and Jharkhand), more people believed Mr Modi has failed to bring achche din, than those who still believe it will come. Even in Assam, where people voted for the BJP in such large numbers, 52 per cent felt Mr Modi has failed to bring achche din. But different people interpret “achche din” differently, and it may not be easy for the Centre to usher in the “good days”.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
