If Indian democracy is seen as a great stock market with political parties as companies, the serial elections will be the undoubted markers on the graph of market indices. Undoubtedly, the verdict that the electorate of Bihar has given the nation is nothing short of a major “correction” and that too within 18 months of an electoral outcome that was assumed to create permanence for Narendra Modi. The only saving grace for Mr Modi is that the Bihar mandate is as much a positive vote for the politics of social justice as it is a rejection of his style of politics and values he championed.
The reason why the Bihar verdict may be called a “correction” is two-fold. Firstly, it demonstrates that the voter was hoodwinked by the Pied Piper of Vadnagar last year, and now as they realise that the gap between promises and delivery has widened, they doubt the pledges in the first place. Secondly, this campaign was accompanied by a virulent charge led by Mr Modi from the front and backed by Bharatiya Janata Party chief Amit Shah as the second-in-command. This was an electoral charge that Mr Modi began by chanting the development mantra. But towards the end, his party literally deployed the holy cow.
The verdict is all the more important because it is also a vehement rejection of the surround-sound system, orchestrated by the Parivar ensemble. Ever since the BJP became the first party in three decades to secure a majority last year, Mr Modi consciously chose to play along with the hardnosed Hindutva elements. While he needed to pay lip service to these forces and pay adequate attention to the promises and hope he had generated for a better India, Mr Modi erred by putting this on the backburner and giving primary position to the “core agenda” of the Sangh Parivar. On one hand he delivered an almost visionary like speech on Independence Day last year, but on the other hand he also entrusted the campaign for the bypolls in Uttar Pradesh to Yogi Adityanath.
This balancing act sent a clear message to the Hindutva brigade in the party that the leadership would not frown upon them if they pursued the cultural agenda. They received further fillip from the assiduous pursuit of the saffron agenda from the ministry of human resource development. However, events since the campaign was launched assumed threatening proportions and, in a matter of days, the incident in Dadri became symbolic of the threat to the idea of India. Mr Modi allowed the situation believing that the people were ready for another round of polarisation like in Uttar Pradesh in 2014. Yet, it turned out that Bihar was not exactly Uttar Pradesh and one hopes that the state does not witness another round of communal hostility like the one after the riots in Muzaffarnagar in 2013.
What went wrong with the BJP’s campaign To begin with, it must be recalled that the Modi campaign in 2014 had succeeded because it had been a perfect mix of a right leader, at an opportune time, backed by a very innovative campaign. In 2014, the party constantly added new features from the time Mr Modi made a charge to become Prime Minister. If “chai per charcha” gave a new dimension to a campaign when the Aam Aadmi Party’s emergence appeared to be causing a huge impact, it was followed by the 3D holographic video rallies the moment the tea-party campaign appeared to be floundering.
But the BJP campaign this time was static and made no effort at reinventing itself. Even after party leaders assessed that the campaign had gone off track after the two rounds of polling in Bihar before the fortnight-long break, it could not do anything beyond making some cosmetic changes, whereas what the party needed was to change its “chaal, charitra and chehra” (behaviour, character and face). But that was a tall order under a leadership that believes in a Modi credo that does not endorse introspection and soul-searching.
The ramifications of the verdict are going to be widespread. Firstly, Mr Modi’s stranglehold in the party and the dominance of the “Trimurti” comprising Mr Modi, Mr Shah and Arun Jaitley will be severely challenged. While it is too early to begin examining prospects of a challenge to Mr Modi’s leadership, the position of Mr Shah and Mr Jaitley have been severely undermined, because while the former will be apportioned blame for the errors on the organisational front, Mr Jaitley will be seen to be the author of the negatives heaped on the party because of faulty strategies of the government — be it the land bill or the aggressive stand against the Opposition when the ruling party needed to display greater humility because of its minority status in the Rajya Sabha.
In terms of the change in actual ground position in the party, it will be tough for Mr Shah to secure another term as party president and Mr Modi may not be able to do too much to save him. Similarly, when it comes to Mr Jaitley, the larger-than-life image he has acquired in the government over the past 18 months — where he has de facto control over many ministries besides the ones he is officially charged with — will definitely be eroded.
The Bihar verdict will surely trigger important developments in national politics. The Opposition will be resurgent and the government will face a major storm during the forthcoming Winter Session of Parliament. Its aggressive strategy to counter the wave of protests against growing hate campaigns and intolerance will have to be toned down. The verdict will also trigger further realignment in the Opposition ranks, because the complete marginalisation of Mulayam Singh Yadav, after he walked away from the “Mahagathbandhan” has demonstrated that the BJP can be defeated provided Opposition parties come together. In the final analysis, Mr Modi was worsted because he forgot an oft-stated advice of Dattopant Thengadi, one of the iconic leaders of the Sangh Parivar and the founder of Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh. He used to say: “Never take goodwill for granted.” This is an advice that will be well-heeded by Nitish Kumar, Lalu Prasad Yadav and others in the Opposition.
The writer is the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, the Times and Sikhs: The Untold Agony of 1984
