If there’s one thing that is clear about the coming Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls, it’s that all parties are facing a huge dilemma. The BJP, which should have been confident after its massive victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls in the state, is facing a crisis of leadership. It is still unclear about whom to project as its CM candidate, and there seem to be many claimants. The Samajwadi Party faces the dilemma of how to resolve sharp differences among senior leaders on whether or not to merge the Quami Ekta Dal (QED) with itself. The Bahujan Samaj Party faces the dilemma of how to handle dissension in the party, with some senior leaders quitting it after accusing supremo Mayawati of selling party tickets. The Congress, that too faced the dilemma of whom to project as its CM candidate, with the names of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka doing the rounds, seems to have taken the lead in this respect by projecting former Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit.
The elections are due early next year, but events unfolding (referred to locally as Utha Patak) in all political parties indicates that as of now the leaders are simply unable to read voters’ minds. While it is too early to get a sense of local dynamics in specific constituencies, as much rests on who is fielded (belonging to which caste) by each party, one begins to get a sense of the way the wind is blowing. The discussions on the UP elections is already heating up, without any sense of which party is ahead in the race. The upsets within various parties only shows that candidates are unsure of which horse to ride. The indecision within parties indicates they are unsure about what strategy to adopt to mobilise voters. Assuming the upper castes will anyway be a votebank for the party, the BJP is trying to play the OBC card. The SP, confident of getting Yadav support, is going all out to woo the urban middle class, and Akhilesh Yadav is trying to project a clean image. Ms Mayawati, confident of getting the dalit vote, is trying to woo Muslims by giving a large number of tickets to Muslim candidates. The Congress, having realised it may have difficulty in mobilising either dalits, or OBCs, is still hoping for the Muslim vote by making Raj Babbar state party chief, and is trying to make inroads into the upper castes (Brahmins and Rajputs) by projecting Ms Dikshit, a Brahmin, as its CM candidate, and nominating Sanjay Singh, a Rajput and Raja of Amethi, as its campaign committee head.
Going by the current pro-incumbency trend at state levels, the SP should be a frontrunner, at least at this stage, with no serious signs of dissatisfaction with the work done by the young chief minister. The electoral verdicts in various states in recent decades suggest more state governments are getting re-elected and only some tend to lose the polls subsequently. But there are many indications to suggest that things are not very smooth within the SP. First, former Meerut zila panchayat chief Maninder Pal Singh and Yuva Morcha state secretary Rahul Yadav joined the BJP along with their supporters in the presence of UP BJP chief Keshav Prasad Maurya. If that was a small setback, the events that unfolded over the short-lived merger of the QED, an eastern UP-based outfit with two MLAs, with the SP indicates that a confrontation may be brewing between chief minister Akhilesh Yadav and his uncle Shivpal Yadav, one that may harm the SP in the Assembly elections. With voters from major castes or communities already polarised in favour of one party or another, the CM’s expression of “righteous indignation” seems meant to appease the urban middle class, which to a large extent cuts across castes and communities.
While many believe the BSP is ahead of others in the fray in UP, things aren’t going too well for that party too. With only a few months left for the elections, national general secretary Swami Prasad Maurya left it after accusing Ms Mayawati of corruption and “auctioning” seats. Another leader, R.K. Chaudhary, also left the party after accusing Ms Mayawati of corruption. In another jolt to the BSP, which is fighting to keep its dalit votebank intact, Phillaur leader Baldev Khera also announced he would quit. All these developments only show the party is weakening.
The BJP is finding it difficult to decide on a “face” to project as its CM candidate ahead of the elections, with the names of Varun Gandhi, Rajnath Singh, Smriti Irani and Yogi Adityanath doing the rounds. The party finds it hard to decide on a consensus candidate. It faced the same dilemma in Bihar, where it lost the elections badly.
Having announced its CM candidate well in advance, the Congress may still face a dilemma on whether to go into these elections alone or look for a viable alliance partner. If the Congress decides to contest alone, it will find it impossible to cross the halfway mark needed to form the government. If, on the other hand, it decides to enter into an alliance, it faces a tough choice on which party to partner with — Mayawati’s BSP or Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal.
Some believe it may be useful for the Congress to ally with the BSP, which had got 19.7 per cent of the vote in the 2014 parliamentary election, compared to Congress’ own 7.5 per cent. It could be a winning combination, and may also help in consolidating the votes of Muslims, who constitute 18.5 per cent of the electorate. It will also help further consolidate the dalit vote (18 per cent of UP’s total voters) in favour of this alliance. Once seen as a viable combination, it may also help get upper caste votes back to the Congress fold, specially of Brahmins and Rajputs. But the main dilemma for the Congress is whether it will be satisfied being a junior partner, as it would have to contest fewer seats than the BSP, which got a much bigger voteshare in 2014. Also, a big question is whether the BSP will be ready to form an alliance with Congress.
While the overall picture is fuzzy at the moment, things will get clearer and the clouds may start disappearing as we move closer to the election. Till then, one can only wait and watch as events unfold in UP.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
