If there is one Assembly election the Congress should feel confident of winning, it is the one in Punjab. I say this not just because the party has hired the “man of the moment”, Prashant Kishor, seen by many as a “match winner” of late, nor going by the trend that the state never elects the same government over the past four decades. This trend was broken in 2012 when the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP government was re-elected. I don’t think the Congress has a good chance of winning the coming polls as I consider the 2012 election was an exception, and the pattern of governments changing every five years in Punjab will be restored. If I was doing that, I would be making a mistake, as with changed political scenario in Punjab, the Congress by default gains from a change of government every five years. But there is a strong third player, the Aam Aadmi Party, and the contest in the state is no longer bipolar. But I still think the Congress has a fair chance of winning in Punjab, and I have three reasons for this — events that are unfolding in different parties, the existing support base of the Congress as reflected in votes polled; and the nature of the political contest. Logically, by all three factors, the Congress seems well placed to win the contest as of now.
After its superb performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and the growing attraction of voters towards it at one time, the AAP seemed a strong contender for power in Punjab. But after the 2014 elections, the AAP is not in the same shape and size. The first split the party suffered was when Yogendra Yadav, Prashant Bhushan and some others were expelled. The party could still have been in a position to be the frontrunner had it not seen many others too either being expelled or leaving the party, such as Dharamvir Gandhi and Sucha Singh Chhotepur. The BJP suffered a blow when Navjot Singh Sidhu recently left it. The Akali Dal too could not hold its leaders together as a long-term associate of SAD, Balbir Singh Bath, a three-time MLA from Sri Hargobindpur, left the party and joined the AAP. Former Indian hockey captain Pargat Singh also left the Akalis after being in the party for long but is yet to join any party. There may be differences among leaders of the Congress, but the party has not yet suffered any setback by way of defections, except Aman Arora leaving it and joining the AAP.
Then let us consider the support base of different parties. Even by this logic, the Congress doesn’t seem to be any major disadvantage. The Congress couldn’t win the 2012 Assembly polls but the difference in voteshare between the Congress and the Akali-BJP combine was less than one per cent. No one can deny that the Congress was at its lowest popularity level in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, but even during there the Congress polled 33 per cent of the vote, that was just marginally less than the 35 per cent combined voteshare of the Akali-BJP alliance. The Congress ended up winning three Lok Sabha seats, while the Akali-BJP combine won six (SAD four and BJP two). The AAP, at the peak of its popularity, polled 24 per cent votes and four Lok Sabha seats. If anything seems to have changed since 2014, it is the decline in the popularity of the AAP due to events unfolding within the party and its leadership, and a growing dissatisfaction with the ruling SAD-BJP government. If there is one party which may not have lost popular support since 2014, it is the Congress. There is nothing which the party has done to attract new voters between 2014 and now, but there is no reason to believe that those who had voted for it during 2014 will turn their back to the Congress. People have vented their anger against the party twice, in the 2012 Assembly polls and in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. One should not forget Punjab has a very large dalit population (29 per cent) who have not only voted for the Congress in large numbers over successive elections, but also in both the 2012 and 2014 elections, which the party lost. There is no reason to suspect that they will not vote for the Congress in the forthcoming Assembly elections.
The nature of the electoral contest the state is likely to see in 2017 also places the Congress in an advantageous position, more than any other party. The multi-cornered contest that the state will witness between the Congress, SAD-BJP alliance, AAP, Swaraj India Party and possible coalitions formed by many disgruntled leaders from different parties (except the Congress) will by default benefit the Congress. The emerging “New Front” in Punjab comprises leaders who have defected or been expelled from various parties, except the Congress. The two Independent MLA brothers, Balwinder Singh Bains and Simarjit Singh Bains, are also likely to join the “New Front”. At the point, it isn’t clear how this “New Front” will perform, but whatever votes it corners will eat into the voteshare of the AAP, BJP and SAD more than the Congress. The “New Front” may be able to win only a small number of Assembly seats, but can play the role of a spoiler in many constituencies, that will damage the AAP and SAD-BJP combine far more than the Congress.
It’s important to note that in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress led in 37 Assembly seats while the SAD-BJP combine led in 45 seats. The AAP led in 33 seats. For reasons explained earlier, there is very little chance of the Congress’ voteshare declining compared to its 2014 voteshare, while other parties are likely to suffer on that account. A two-three per cent swing in its favour can take the Congress’ tally near the majority mark. The SAD-BJP combine is also in similar situation, a minor swing in its favour can also lead to a comfortable victory for the ruling coalition, but given its low popularity a positive swing in its favour is highly unlikely. While the AAP would need a much bigger swing of around 10 per cent to cross the majority mark, that seemed possible a few months ago, the events which unfolded within the AAP have made it impossible for the party to win the elections in Punjab, though it would still be seen as a strong contender for power in the state.
The writer is a professor and currently director of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies. The views expressed are personal.
